Economics
We show that for any $\epsilon>0$, as the number of agents gets large, the share of games that admit a pure $\epsilon$-equilibrium converges to 1. Our result holds even for pure $\epsilon$-equilibrium in which all agents, except for at most…
In 1986, Robert LaLonde published an article comparing nonexperimental estimates to experimental benchmarks (LaLonde 1986). He concluded that the nonexperimental methods at the time could not systematically replicate experimental…
Decentralized Finance (DeFi) on Ethereum has undergone significant transformations since its emergence during the DeFi summer of 2020. With the introduction of Proof of Stake (PoS) and Proposer-Builder Separation (PBS), the transaction…
A weakening of sequential rationality of sequential equilibrium yields Reny's (1992) weakly sequentially rational equilibrium (WSRE) in extensive-form games. WSRE requires Kreps and Wilson's (1982) consistent assessment to satisfy global…
This paper introduces Experiential Matrix Theory (EMT), a general theory of growth, employment, and technological change for the age of artificial intelligence (AI). EMT redefines utility as the alignment between production and an evolving,…
This paper examines the impact of cognitive biases on financial decision-making through a static Bayesian game framework. While traditional economic theory assumes fully rational investors, real-world choices are often shaped by loss…
How much does luck matter to a criminal defendant in a jury trial? We use rich data on jury selection to causally estimate how parties who are randomly assigned a less favorable jury (as proxied by whether their attorneys exhaust their…
This paper examines the impact of managers' non-responses (NORs) during quarterly earnings calls on analyst forecast behavior by developing a novel measure of NORs using two large language models: ChatGPT-4 and LLaMA 3.3. We adopt a three…
The intensification of European agriculture, characterized by increasing farm sizes, landscape simplification and reliance on synthetic pesticides, remains a key driver of biodiversity decline. While many studies have investigated this…
People in the real world often possess vague knowledge of future payoffs, for which quantification is not feasible or desirable. We argue that language, with differing ability to convey vague information, plays an important but less-known…
Purpose: How much to invest in research facilities has long been a question in higher education and research policy. We present established and recently developed techniques for assessing the quantitative value created or received as a…
I study robust comparative statics for risk-averse subjective expected utility (SEU) maximizers. Starting with a finite menu of actions totally ordered by sensitivity to risk, I identify the transformations of her menu that lead a…
Climate neutrality paradigms put electricity systems at the core of a clean energy supply. At the same time, indirect electrification, with a potential uptake of hydrogen or derived fuel economy, plays a crucial role in decarbonising the…
This paper considers the estimation of treatment effects in randomized experiments with complex experimental designs, including cases with interference between units. We develop a design-based estimation theory for arbitrary experimental…
Tournament solutions play an important role within social choice theory and the mathematical social sciences at large. We construct a tournament of order 36 for which the Banks set and the bipartisan set are disjoint. This implies that…
The proportional odds cumulative logit model (POCLM) is a standard regression model for an ordinal response. Ordinality of predictors can be incorporated by monotonicity constraints for the corresponding parameters. It is shown that…
We demonstrate that the set of cost distributions under which the optimal strategy for maximizing compliance (or more generally, effort) in a binary choice environment is identical to the optimal strategy for maximizing the accuracy of the…
Estimating the effects of climate on economic output is crucial for formulating climate policy, but current empirical findings remain ambiguous. Using annual panel model and panel long-difference model with global subnational data from…
This study investigates the forecasting performance of Bayesian shrinkage priors in predicting Thai inflation in a univariate setup, with a particular interest in comparing those more advance shrinkage prior to a likelihood…
What should applied macroeconomists know about local projection (LP) and vector autoregression (VAR) impulse response estimators? The two methods share the same estimand, but in finite samples lie on opposite ends of a bias-variance…