Economics
Economists use quantitative trade and spatial models to make counterfactual predictions. Because such predictions often inform policy decisions, it is important to communicate the uncertainty surrounding them. Three key challenges arise in…
Multimodal LLMs offer a watershed change for the digitization of historical tables, enabling low-cost processing centered on domain expertise rather than technical skills. We rigorously validate an LLM-based pipeline on a new panel of…
This study examines the relationship between AI-driven digital transformation and firm performance in Chinese industrial enterprises, with particular attention to the mediating role of green digital innovation and the moderating effects of…
The Deferred Acceptance (DA) mechanism can generate inefficient placements. Although Pareto-dominant mechanisms exist, it remains unclear which and how many students could improve. We characterize the set of unimprovable students and show…
This paper introduces a quasi-Bayesian method that integrates frequentist nonparametric estimation with Bayesian inference in a two-stage process. Applied to an endogenous discrete choice model, the approach first uses kernel or sieve…
The economic shocks that followed the COVID-19 pandemic have brought to light the difficulty, both for academics and policy makers, of describing and predicting the dynamics of inflation. This paper offers an alternative modelling approach.…
Empirical welfare analyses often impose stringent parametric assumptions on individuals' preferences and neglect unobserved preference heterogeneity. We develop a framework to conduct individual and social welfare analysis for discrete…
This paper introduces a novel, scalable methodology to measure individual perceptions of gaps in mental load -- the cognitive and emotional burden associated with organizing household and childcare tasks -- within heterosexual couples.…
This paper studies the Footloose Entrepreneur model in new economic geography in continuous space. In an appropriate function space, the model is formulated as an initial value problem for an infinite-dimensional ordinary differential…
Financial crises often occur without warning, yet markets leading up to these events display increasing volatility and complex interdependencies across multiple sectors. This study proposes a novel approach to predicting market crises by…
As Large Language Models (LLMs) integrate into our social and economic interactions, we need to deepen our understanding of how humans respond to LLMs opponents in strategic settings. We present the results of the first controlled…
We develop a distribution regression model with a censored selection rule, offering a semi-parametric generalization of the Heckman selection model. Our approach applies to the entire distribution, extending beyond the mean or median,…
This paper presents a novel staking coopetition design aimed at incentivizing decentralization and continuous growth of economic security within a proof-of-stake system. Staking rewards follow a nonlinear mapping relative to stake size.…
This paper explores the potential of large language models (LLMs) for task automation in the provision of technical services in the production machinery sector. By focusing on text correction, summarization, and question answering, the…
In this paper, we study the continuity of expected utility functions, and derive a necessary and sufficient condition for a weak order on the space of simple probabilities to have a continuous expected utility function. We also verify that…
We consider a committee voting on whether to adopt a reform under a quota rule, where members differ in how much they value the reform some supporting it, others opposing it. We examine how members can influence each other's votes through…
On 11th Jan 2020, the first COVID-19 related death was confirmed in Wuhan, Hubei. The Chinese government responded to the outbreak with a lockdown that impacted most residents of Hubei province and lasted for almost three months. At the…
Governments have used social distancing to stem the spread of COVID-19, but lack evidence on the most effective policy to ensure compliance. We examine the effectiveness of fines and informational messages (nudges) in promoting social…
In his book entitled ''A System of Logic, Ratiocinative and Inductive'' (1843), John Stuart Mill proposed principles of inductive reasoning in the form of five canons. To date, these canons are classic methods for causal reasoning: they are…
Production networks, dynamic systems of firms linked through input-output relationships, transmit microeconomic shocks into macroeconomic fluctuations. While prior studies often assume static networks, real-world economies feature…