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Guessing the output of a stationary binary time series

Probability 2008-06-19 v1 Information Theory math.IT

Abstract

The forward prediction problem for a binary time series {Xn}n=0\{X_n\}_{n=0}^{\infty} is to estimate the probability that Xn+1=1X_{n+1}=1 based on the observations XiX_i, 0in0\le i\le n without prior knowledge of the distribution of the process {Xn}\{X_n\}. It is known that this is not possible if one estimates at all values of nn. We present a simple procedure which will attempt to make such a prediction infinitely often at carefully selected stopping times chosen by the algorithm. The growth rate of the stopping times is also exhibited.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.0710.3760,
  title  = {Guessing the output of a stationary binary time series},
  author = {Gusztav Morvai},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:0710.3760},
  year   = {2008}
}
R2 v1 2026-06-21T09:34:05.825Z