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Inferring the conditional mean

Probability 2008-06-19 v1 Information Theory math.IT

Abstract

Consider a stationary real-valued time series {Xn}n=0\{X_n\}_{n=0}^{\infty} with a priori unknown distribution. The goal is to estimate the conditional expectation E(Xn+1X0,...,Xn)E(X_{n+1}|X_0,..., X_n) based on the observations (X0,...,Xn)(X_0,..., X_n) in a pointwise consistent way. It is well known that this is not possible at all values of nn. We will estimate it along stopping times.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.0710.3757,
  title  = {Inferring the conditional mean},
  author = {Gusztav Morvai and Benjamin Weiss},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:0710.3757},
  year   = {2008}
}
R2 v1 2026-06-21T09:34:05.455Z