Prediction for discrete time series
Abstract
Let be a stationary and ergodic time series taking values from a finite or countably infinite set . Assume that the distribution of the process is otherwise unknown. We propose a sequence of stopping times along which we will be able to estimate the conditional probability from data segment in a pointwise consistent way for a restricted class of stationary and ergodic finite or countably infinite alphabet time series which includes among others all stationary and ergodic finitarily Markovian processes. If the stationary and ergodic process turns out to be finitarily Markovian (among others, all stationary and ergodic Markov chains are included in this class) then almost surely. If the stationary and ergodic process turns out to possess finite entropy rate then is upperbounded by a polynomial, eventually almost surely.
Cite
@article{arxiv.0711.0471,
title = {Prediction for discrete time series},
author = {G. Morvai and B. Weiss},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:0711.0471},
year = {2008}
}