Predictions and algorithmic statistics for infinite sequence
Abstract
Consider the following prediction problem. Assume that there is a block box that produces bits according to some unknown computable distribution on the binary tree. We know first bits . We want to know the probability of the event that that the next bit is equal to . Solomonoff suggested to use universal semimeasure for solving this task. He proved that for every computable distribution and for every the following holds: However, Solomonoff's method has a negative aspect: Hutter and Muchnik proved that there are an universal semimeasure , computable distribution and a random (in Martin-L{\"o}f sense) sequence such that . We suggest a new way for prediction. For every finite string we predict the new bit according to the best (in some sence) distribution for . We prove the similar result as Solomonoff theorem for our way of prediction. Also we show that our method of prediction has no that negative aspect as Solomonoff's method.
Cite
@article{arxiv.2005.03467,
title = {Predictions and algorithmic statistics for infinite sequence},
author = {Alexey Milovanov},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2005.03467},
year = {2023}
}
Comments
14 pages