Related papers: Predictions and algorithmic statistics for infinit…
Solomonoff unified Occam's razor and Epicurus' principle of multiple explanations to one elegant, formal, universal theory of inductive inference, which initiated the field of algorithmic information theory. His central result is that the…
Solomonoff's central result on induction is that the posterior of a universal semimeasure M converges rapidly and with probability 1 to the true sequence generating posterior mu, if the latter is computable. Hence, M is eligible as a…
Solomonoff unified Occam's razor and Epicurus' principle of multiple explanations to one elegant, formal, universal theory of inductive inference, which initiated the field of algorithmic information theory. His central result is that the…
Solomonoff sequence prediction is a scheme to predict digits of binary strings without knowing the underlying probability distribution. We call a prediction scheme informed when it knows the true probability distribution of the sequence.…
Solomonoff's central result on induction is that the posterior of a universal semimeasure M converges rapidly and with probability 1 to the true sequence generating posterior mu, if the latter is computable. Hence, M is eligible as a…
Solomonoff's uncomputable universal prediction scheme $\xi$ allows to predict the next symbol $x_k$ of a sequence $x_1...x_{k-1}$ for any Turing computable, but otherwise unknown, probabilistic environment $\mu$. This scheme will be…
Algorithmic theories of randomness can be related to theories of probabilistic sequence prediction through the notion of a predictor, defined as a function which supplies lower bounds on initial-segment probabilities of infinite sequences.…
An a priori semimeasure (also known as "algorithmic probability" or "the Solomonoff prior" in the context of inductive inference) is defined as the transformation, by a given universal monotone Turing machine, of the uniform measure on the…
Many learning tasks can be viewed as sequence prediction problems. For example, online classification can be converted to sequence prediction with the sequence being pairs of input/target data and where the goal is to correctly predict the…
We bound the future loss when predicting any (computably) stochastic sequence online. Solomonoff finitely bounded the total deviation of his universal predictor M from the true distribution m by the algorithmic complexity of m. Here we…
We bound the future loss when predicting any (computably) stochastic sequence online. Solomonoff finitely bounded the total deviation of his universal predictor $M$ from the true distribution $mu$ by the algorithmic complexity of $mu$. Here…
The Bayesian framework is ideally suited for induction problems. The probability of observing $x_t$ at time $t$, given past observations $x_1...x_{t-1}$ can be computed with Bayes' rule if the true distribution $\mu$ of the sequences…
Various optimality properties of universal sequence predictors based on Bayes-mixtures in general, and Solomonoff's prediction scheme in particular, will be studied. The probability of observing $x_t$ at time $t$, given past observations…
Solomonoff completed the Bayesian framework by providing a rigorous, unique, formal, and universal choice for the model class and the prior. We discuss in breadth how and in which sense universal (non-i.i.d.) sequence prediction solves…
This chapter discusses the Solomonoff approach to universal prediction. The crucial ingredient in the approach is the notion of computability, and I present the main idea as an attempt to meet two plausible computability desiderata for a…
The probability distribution P from which the history of our universe is sampled represents a theory of everything or TOE. We assume P is formally describable. Since most (uncountably many) distributions are not, this imposes a strong…
This paper studies sequence prediction based on the monotone Kolmogorov complexity Km=-log m, i.e. based on universal deterministic/one-part MDL. m is extremely close to Solomonoff's universal prior M, the latter being an excellent…
The Bayesian framework is a well-studied and successful framework for inductive reasoning, which includes hypothesis testing and confirmation, parameter estimation, sequence prediction, classification, and regression. But standard…
The framework of Solomonoff prediction assigns prior probability to hypotheses inversely proportional to their Kolmogorov complexity. There are two well-known problems. First, the Solomonoff prior is relative to a choice of Universal Turing…
We study universal compression of sequences generated by monotonic distributions. We show that for a monotonic distribution over an alphabet of size $k$, each probability parameter costs essentially $0.5 \log (n/k^3)$ bits, where $n$ is the…