English

Curiosities regarding waiting times in P\'{o}lya's urn model

Probability 2019-11-05 v1

Abstract

Consider an urn initially containing bb black and ww white balls. Select a ball at random and observe its color. If it is black, stop. Otherwise, return the white ball together with another white ball to the urn. Continue selecting at random, each time adding a white ball, until a black ball is selected. Let Tb,wT_{b,w} denote the number of draws until this happens. Surprisingly, the expectation of Tb,wT_{b,w} is infinite for the "fair" initial scenario b=w=1b =w=1, but finite if b=2b=2 and w=109w=10^9. In fact, E[Tb,w]\mathbb{E}[T_{b,w}] is finite if and only if b2b\ge 2, and the variance of Tb,wT_{b,w} is finite if and only if b3b \ge 3, regardless of the number ww of white balls. These observations extend to higher moments.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.1911.01052,
  title  = {Curiosities regarding waiting times in P\'{o}lya's urn model},
  author = {Norbert Henze and Mark P. Holmes},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:1911.01052},
  year   = {2019}
}

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5 pages