Curiosities regarding waiting times in P\'{o}lya's urn model
Probability
2019-11-05 v1
Abstract
Consider an urn initially containing black and white balls. Select a ball at random and observe its color. If it is black, stop. Otherwise, return the white ball together with another white ball to the urn. Continue selecting at random, each time adding a white ball, until a black ball is selected. Let denote the number of draws until this happens. Surprisingly, the expectation of is infinite for the "fair" initial scenario , but finite if and . In fact, is finite if and only if , and the variance of is finite if and only if , regardless of the number of white balls. These observations extend to higher moments.
Cite
@article{arxiv.1911.01052,
title = {Curiosities regarding waiting times in P\'{o}lya's urn model},
author = {Norbert Henze and Mark P. Holmes},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:1911.01052},
year = {2019}
}
Comments
5 pages