English

Central Limit Theorem for a P\'olya-Friedman Mixed Urn Model

Probability 2026-05-27 v1

Abstract

This paper considers a two-color, single-draw urn model with two types of balls, denoted type 11 and type 22, with initial counts Y01N+Y^1_0\in N^+ and Y02N+Y^2_0\in N^+, respectively. At each discrete time step, a ball is drawn uniformly at random, its type observed, and then it is returned to the urn. The urn is subsequently updated according to a mixed replacement matrix: with fixed probability p(0,1)p\in(0,1), the Friedman replacement matrix is applied, adding aa balls of the drawn type and bb balls of the opposite type; with fixed probability 1p(0,1)1-p\in (0,1), the P\'olya replacement matrix is applied, adding cc balls of the drawn type. We establish the central limit theorem for the proportion of type 11 balls after nn draws. Furthermore, we provide corollaries that yield large deviation inequalities and the law of the iterated logarithm related to the proportion of type 11 balls after nn draws.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2605.26669,
  title  = {Central Limit Theorem for a P\'olya-Friedman Mixed Urn Model},
  author = {Jianan Shi and Qing Yin and Yu Miao},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2605.26669},
  year   = {2026}
}

Comments

21 pages, 0 figures

R2 v1 2026-07-22T07:34:01.407Z