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A note on P\'olya urns: the winner may lead all the time

Probability 2025-06-19 v1

Abstract

Consider a P\'olya urn where a drawn ball of colour ii is replaced together with a fixed number mim_i of balls of the same colour. We give a simple proof that if, for example, there are two colours and the urn starts with more balls of colour 1 than 2, and m1m2m_1\ge m_2, then there is a positive probability that there always will be more balls of colour 1 than colour 2.

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Cite

@article{arxiv.2506.14859,
  title  = {A note on P\'olya urns: the winner may lead all the time},
  author = {Svante Janson},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2506.14859},
  year   = {2025}
}

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3 pages