English

Alice and Bob on $\Bbb X$: reversal, coupling, renewal

Probability 2025-09-08 v2

Abstract

A neat question involving coin flips surfaced on X\Bbb X, and generated an intensive `storm' of `social mathematics'. In a sequence of flips of a fair coin, Alice wins a point at each appearance of two consecutive heads, and Bob wins a point whenever a head is followed immediately by a tail. Who is more likely to win the game? The subsequent discussion illustrated conflicting intuitions, and concluded with the correct answer (it is a close thing). It is explained here why the context of the question is interesting and how it may be answered in a quantitative manner using the probabilistic techniques of reversal, coupling, and renewal.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2409.00732,
  title  = {Alice and Bob on $\Bbb X$: reversal, coupling, renewal},
  author = {Geoffrey R. Grimmett},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2409.00732},
  year   = {2025}
}

Comments

Accepted version