English

How to lose as little as possible

Combinatorics 2015-03-13 v2 Probability

Abstract

Suppose Alice has a coin with heads probability qq and Bob has one with heads probability p>qp>q. Now each of them will toss their coin nn times, and Alice will win iff she gets more heads than Bob does. Evidently the game favors Bob, but for the given p,qp,q, what is the choice of nn that maximizes Alice's chances of winning? The problem of determining the optimal NN first appeared in \cite{wa}. We show that there is an essentially unique value N(q,p)N(q,p) of nn that maximizes the probability f(n)f(n) that the weak coin will win, and it satisfies 12(pq)12N(q,p)max(1p,q)pq\frac{1}{2(p-q)}-\frac12\le N(q,p)\le \frac{\max{(1-p,q)}}{p-q}. The analysis uses the multivariate form of Zeilberger's algorithm to find an indicator function Jn(q,p)J_n(q,p) such that J>0J>0 iff n<N(q,p)n<N(q,p) followed by a close study of this function, which is a linear combination of two Legendre polynomials. An integration-based algorithm is given for computing N(q,p)N(q,p).

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.1002.1763,
  title  = {How to lose as little as possible},
  author = {Vittorio Addona and Stan Wagon and Herb Wilf},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:1002.1763},
  year   = {2015}
}
R2 v1 2026-06-21T14:44:52.685Z