English

Optimal strategies in the all-heads coin game

Probability 2026-04-28 v1

Abstract

We study a sequential coin-flipping game in which a player starts with~nn coins, each landing heads independently with probability~pp. In each round the player flips all remaining coins and must set aside at least one coin showing heads; if no coin shows heads, the player loses. The player wins if and when all coins have been set aside. This is a stochastic shortest-path Markov decision process whose Bellman equation involves a nonlinear suffix-maximum operator. We analyse two natural strategies -- \One{} (set aside exactly one head) and \All{} (set aside every head) -- and determine the optimal winning probability~wn,pw_{n,p} as a function of~nn and~pp. For p=12p=\tfrac12 every strategy achieves wn,1/2=12w_{n,1/2}=\tfrac12. For p>12p>\tfrac12 the strategy~\One{} is optimal and nwn,pn\mapsto w_{n,p} is strictly increasing; as a consequence the limit W(p):=limnwn,pW(p):=\lim_n w_{n,p} admits an explicit series representation and satisfies pW(p)<1p\le W(p)<1. For p<12p<\tfrac12 near~12\tfrac12 we carry out a first-order perturbation expansion in δ:=12p\delta:=\tfrac12-p and prove that the deficit is 12wn,12δδcn\tfrac12-w_{n,\tfrac 12 - \delta} \approx \delta c_n in first order in δ\delta, where cnc_n satisfies a linear recursion for n7n\ge 7, with a limit L=limcn1.7035L=\lim c_n\approx 1.7035. As a consequence the optimal value sequence has, to first order in~δ\delta, a strict local minimum at n=5n=5 and no local maximum -- local maxima are a non-perturbative phenomenon.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2604.22991,
  title  = {Optimal strategies in the all-heads coin game},
  author = {Peter Pfaffelhuber},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2604.22991},
  year   = {2026}
}

Comments

18 pages, 5 figures