Optimal strategies in the all-heads coin game
Abstract
We study a sequential coin-flipping game in which a player starts with~ coins, each landing heads independently with probability~. In each round the player flips all remaining coins and must set aside at least one coin showing heads; if no coin shows heads, the player loses. The player wins if and when all coins have been set aside. This is a stochastic shortest-path Markov decision process whose Bellman equation involves a nonlinear suffix-maximum operator. We analyse two natural strategies -- \One{} (set aside exactly one head) and \All{} (set aside every head) -- and determine the optimal winning probability~ as a function of~ and~. For every strategy achieves . For the strategy~\One{} is optimal and is strictly increasing; as a consequence the limit admits an explicit series representation and satisfies . For near~ we carry out a first-order perturbation expansion in and prove that the deficit is in first order in , where satisfies a linear recursion for , with a limit . As a consequence the optimal value sequence has, to first order in~, a strict local minimum at and no local maximum -- local maxima are a non-perturbative phenomenon.
Keywords
Cite
@article{arxiv.2604.22991,
title = {Optimal strategies in the all-heads coin game},
author = {Peter Pfaffelhuber},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2604.22991},
year = {2026}
}
Comments
18 pages, 5 figures