相关论文: Time Series Forecasting: A Multivariate Stochastic…

Uncertainty plays a key role in future prediction. The future is uncertain. That means there might be many possible futures. A future prediction method should cover the whole possibilities to be robust. In autonomous driving, covering…

Many applications produce multiway data of exceedingly high dimension. Modeling such multi-way data is important in multichannel signal and video processing where sensors produce multi-indexed data, e.g. over spatial, frequency, and…

The non-stationarity characteristic of the solar power renders traditional point forecasting methods to be less useful due to large prediction errors. This results in increased uncertainties in the grid operation, thereby negatively…

This paper introduces a novel two-dimensional (2D) time series forecasting model that integrates cohort behavior over time, addressing challenges in small data environments. We demonstrate its efficacy using multiple real-world datasets,…

An approach is presented for making predictions about functional time series. The method is applied to data coming from periodically correlated processes and electricity demand, obtaining accurate point forecasts and narrow prediction bands…

Recently, using Greenwich and Solar Optical Observing Network sunspot group data during the period 1874-2006, (Javaraiah, MNRAS, 377, L34, 2007: Paper I), has found that: (1) the sum of the areas of the sunspot groups in 0-10 deg latitude…

Seasonal time series Forecasting remains a challenging problem due to the long-term dependency from seasonality. In this paper, we propose a two-stage framework to forecast univariate seasonal time series. The first stage explicitly learns…

Ensembling is a powerful technique for improving the accuracy of machine learning models, with methods like stacking achieving strong results in tabular tasks. In time series forecasting, however, ensemble methods remain underutilized, with…

Accurate forecasts are vital for supporting the decisions of modern companies. Forecasters typically select the most appropriate statistical model for each time series. However, statistical models usually presume some data generation…

In this paper, we demonstrate the importance of embedding temporal information for an accurate prediction of solar irradiance. We have used two sets of models for forecasting solar irradiance. The first one uses only time series data of…

We propose a novel data-driven stochastic model predictive control framework for uncertain linear systems with noisy output measurements. Our approach leverages multi-step predictors to efficiently propagate uncertainty, ensuring chance…

Several applications in time series forecasting require predicting multiple steps ahead. Despite the vast amount of literature in the topic, both classical and recent deep learning based approaches have mostly focused on minimising…

Real-world time series often exhibit complex interdependencies that cannot be captured in isolation. Global models that model past data from multiple related time series globally while producing series-specific forecasts locally are now…

Recent research has demonstrated that the number of sunspots per group ('active region') has been decreasing over the last two or three solar cycles and that the classical Relative Sunspot Number (SSN) no longer is a good representation of…

Using Greenwich and SOON sunspot group data during the period 1874 -- 2005, we find that the sums of the areas of the sunspot groups in $0^\circ$ -- $10^\circ$ latitude-interval of the Sun's northern hemisphere and in the time-interval,…

The paper presents the results of the analysis of the geometric characteristics of sunspots for the period of 19-24 cycles of activity. The shape of sunspots was studied on the basis of the method of normalization of images of sunspots to…

We have obtained empirical relations between the p-mode frequency shift and the change in solar activity indices. The empirical relations are determined on the basis of frequencies obtained from BBSO and GONG stations during solar cycle 22.…

What sets timeseries analysis apart from other machine learning exercises is that time representation becomes a primary aspect of the experiment setup, as it must adequately represent the temporal relations that are relevant for the…

A reliable and efficient representation of multivariate time series is crucial in various downstream machine learning tasks. In multivariate time series forecasting, each variable depends on its historical values and there are…

There has been a recent surge of interest in time series modeling using the Transformer architecture. However, forecasting multivariate time series with Transformer presents a unique challenge as it requires modeling both temporal…