相关论文: Comparing classical and Bayesian methods for predi…
Bayesian statistical models were developed for the number of tropical cyclones and the rate at which these cyclones became hurricanes in the North Atlantic, North and South Indian, and East and West Pacific Oceans. We find that there is…
Collected data, which is used for analysis or prediction tasks, often have a hierarchical structure, for example, data from various people performing the same task. Modeling the data's structure can improve the reliability of the derived…
A framework for probabilistic forecasting of vessel motion is developed and validated for a semisubmersible operating in long period swell. Bayesian statistical methods are applied to predictions of the heave response from a physics model…
Stacking is a widely used model averaging technique that asymptotically yields optimal predictions among linear averages. We show that stacking is most effective when model predictive performance is heterogeneous in inputs, and we can…
Traditional epidemic detection algorithms make decisions using only local information. We propose a novel approach that explicitly models spatial information fusion from several metapopulations. Our method also takes into account…
Exoplanet research is carried out at the limits of the capabilities of current telescopes and instruments. The studied signals are weak, and often embedded in complex systematics from instrumental, telluric, and astrophysical sources.…
A test of a new Bayesian approach to solar flare prediction (Wheatland 2004a) is presented. The approach uses the past history of flaring together with phenomenological rules of flare statistics to make a prediction for the probability of…
This research is about studying and comparing two different ways of building complex networks. The main goal of our study is to find an effective way to build networks, particularly when we have fewer observations than variables. We…
Aerodynamic models are developed to describe coherent structures and transport processes in hurricanes moving over open seas. The models consist of the lower boundary layer and upper adiabatic layer. Except friction at the air/sea…
European sardine is experiencing an overfishing around the world. The dynamics of the industrial and artisanal fishing in the Mediterranean Sea from 1970 to 2014 by country was assessed by means of Bayesian joint longitudinal modelling that…
A number of methods of flare prediction rely on classification of physical characteristics of an active region, in particular optical classification of sunspots, and historical rates of flaring for a given classification. However these…
Many applications require the ability to judge uncertainty of time-series forecasts. Uncertainty is often specified as point-wise error bars around a mean or median forecast. Due to temporal dependencies, such a method obscures some…
In this paper, a Bayesian method for piecewise regression is adapted to handle counting processes data distributed as Poisson. A numerical code in Mathematica is developed and tested analyzing simulated data. The resulting method is…
A theoretical formulation for the early stage (Tropical Storm stage) of hurricane development is proposed. These solutions are not only consistent with observations but also offer some new insights into hurricane properties. This is the…
Regression for spatially dependent outcomes poses many challenges, for inference and for computation. Non-spatial models and traditional spatial mixed-effects models each have their advantages and disadvantages, making it difficult for…
This survey reviews the existing literature on the most relevant Bayesian inference methods for univariate and multivariate GARCH models. The advantages and drawbacks of each procedure are outlined as well as the advantages of the Bayesian…
The Bayesian approach to the prediction of particle type given measurements of particle location is explored, using a parametric model whose prior is based on the transformation group. Two types of particle are considered, and locations are…
Conventional hurricane track generation methods typically depend on biased outputs from Global Climate Models (GCMs), which undermines their accuracy in the context of climate change. We present a novel dynamic bias correction framework…
For the first time a statistical analysis of oil spill beaching is applied to the whole Mediterranean Sea. A series of probability maps of beaching in case of an oil spill incident are proposed as a complementary tool to vulnerability…
We review a success story regarding Bayesian inference in fisheries management in the Baltic Sea. The management of salmon fisheries is currently based on the results of a complex Bayesian population dynamic model, and managers and…