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We discuss the theoretical machinery involved in predicting financial market movements using an artificial market model which has been trained on real financial data. This approach to market prediction - in particular, forecasting financial…

物理与社会 · 物理学 2007-05-23 Nachi Gupta , Raphael Hauser , Neil F. Johnson

In Artificial Intelligence, interpreting the results of a Machine Learning technique often termed as a black box is a difficult task. A counterfactual explanation of a particular "black box" attempts to find the smallest change to the input…

风险管理 · 定量金融 2021-07-23 Dan Wang , Zhi Chen , Ionut Florescu

Neural networks are often regarded as "black boxes" due to their complex functions and numerous parameters, which poses significant challenges for interpretability. This study addresses these challenges by introducing methods to enhance the…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-09-26 Mohamad Yamen AL Mohamad , Hossein Bevrani , Ali Akbar Haydari

Biomedical data are widely accepted in developing prediction models for identifying a specific tumor, drug discovery and classification of human cancers. However, previous studies usually focused on different classifiers, and overlook the…

定量方法 · 定量生物学 2019-11-05 Shigang Liu , Jun Zhang , Yang Xiang , Wanlei Zhou , Dongxi Xiang

Probabilistic numerics casts numerical tasks, such the numerical solution of differential equations, as inference problems to be solved. One approach is to model the unknown quantity of interest as a random variable, and to constrain this…

When studying high-dimensional dynamical systems such as macromolecules, quantum systems and polymers, a prime concern is the identification of the most probable states and their stationary probabilities or free energies. Often, these…

数据分析、统计与概率 · 物理学 2013-01-01 Hao Wu , Frank Noé

Black-box optimization is increasingly used in engineering design problems where simulation-based evaluations are costly and gradients are unavailable. In this context, the optimization community has largely analyzed algorithm performance…

神经与进化计算 · 计算机科学 2026-02-06 Iván Olarte Rodríguez , Gokhan Serhat , Mariusz Bujny , Fabian Duddeck , Thomas Bäck , Elena Raponi

Bayesian optimization has attracted huge attention from diverse research areas in science and engineering, since it is capable of efficiently finding a global optimum of an expensive-to-evaluate black-box function. In general, a…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-07-29 Jungtaek Kim

Lossy compressors are increasingly adopted in scientific research, tackling volumes of data from experiments or parallel numerical simulations and facilitating data storage and movement. In contrast with the notion of entropy in lossless…

分布式、并行与集群计算 · 计算机科学 2023-05-16 Robert Underwood , Julie Bessac , David Krasowska , Jon C. Calhoun , Sheng Di , Franck Cappello

We point out that neural networks are not black boxes, and their generalization stems from the ability to dynamically map a dataset to the extrema of the model function. We further prove that the number of extrema in a neural network is…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-10-13 Shengjian Chen

We present a meta-algorithm for learning a posterior-inference algorithm for restricted probabilistic programs. Our meta-algorithm takes a training set of probabilistic programs that describe models with observations, and attempts to learn…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-12-28 Gwonsoo Che , Hongseok Yang

Sparse decision trees are one of the most common forms of interpretable models. While recent advances have produced algorithms that fully optimize sparse decision trees for prediction, that work does not address policy design, because the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-10-27 Ali Behrouz , Mathias Lecuyer , Cynthia Rudin , Margo Seltzer

In this work we introduce a novel weighted message-passing algorithm based on the cavity method to estimate volume-related properties of random polytopes, properties which are relevant in various research fields ranging from metabolic…

无序系统与神经网络 · 物理学 2015-06-11 Francesc Font-Clos , Francesco Alessandro Massucci , Isaac Pérez Castillo

In many domains, the previous decade was characterized by increasing data volumes and growing complexity of computational workloads, creating new demands for highly data-parallel computing in distributed systems. Effective operation of…

分布式、并行与集群计算 · 计算机科学 2019-01-25 Carl Witt , Marc Bux , Wladislaw Gusew , Ulf Leser

Boosting is a learning scheme that combines weak prediction rules to produce a strong composite estimator, with the underlying intuition that one can obtain accurate prediction rules by combining "rough" ones. Although boosting is proved to…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2015-05-07 Shaobo Lin , Yao Wang , Lin Xu

We give a mathematical framework for weighted ensemble (WE) sampling, a binning and resampling technique for efficiently computing probabilities in molecular dynamics. We prove that WE sampling is unbiased in a very general setting that…

数值分析 · 数学 2018-10-17 David Aristoff

In computational social science, researchers often use a pre-trained, black box classifier to estimate the frequency of each class in unlabeled datasets. A variety of prevalence estimation techniques have been developed in the literature,…

社会与信息网络 · 计算机科学 2024-04-03 Siqi Wu , Paul Resnick

The vast majority of real world classification problems are imbalanced, meaning there are far fewer data from the class of interest (the positive class) than from other classes. We propose two machine learning algorithms to handle highly…

机器学习 · 统计学 2014-06-10 Siong Thye Goh , Cynthia Rudin

Many scientific and technological problems are related to optimization. Among them, black-box optimization in high-dimensional space is particularly challenging. Recent neural network-based black-box optimization studies have shown…

神经与进化计算 · 计算机科学 2024-01-30 Changhwi Park

The encoding of solutions in black-box optimization is a delicate, handcrafted balance between expressiveness and domain knowledge -- between exploring a wide variety of solutions, and ensuring that those solutions are useful. Our main…

神经与进化计算 · 计算机科学 2020-07-07 Adam Gaier , Alexander Asteroth , Jean-Baptiste Mouret