相关论文: Threat Characterization: Trajectory Dynamics

In this paper, the minimum orbit intersection distances (MOIDs) of near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) over the next 200 years were computed and analyzed in detail. It was shown that the MOID of a NEA relative to the Earth-Moon barycenter (EMB) is…

Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) are asteroids, comets and meteoroids in heliocentric orbits with perihelion below 1.3 au. Similarly to the population of the Main Asteroid Belt, NEOs are primordial bodies and their study can improve our…

In recent years, nine small near-Earth asteroids were discovered a few hours before the collision with the Earth: these are about one meter in diameter objects that have all disintegrated in the atmosphere, generating bright fireballs…

Some risks have extremely high stakes. For example, a worldwide pandemic or asteroid impact could potentially kill more than a billion people. Comfortingly, scientific calculations often put very low probabilities on the occurrence of such…

We discuss a hypothetical existential threat from a 10 km diameter bolide discovered 6 months prior to impact with one case being a comet and the other being an asteroid. We show that an extension of our work on bolide fragmentation using…

Until recently, most asteroids were thought to be solid bodies whose shapes were determined largely by collisions with other asteroids. It now seems that many asteroids are little more than rubble piles, held together by self-gravity; this…

We review the present status of our research and understanding regarding the dynamics and the statistical properties of earthquakes, mainly from a statistical physical viewpoint. Emphasis is put both on the physics of friction and fracture,…

With N-body simulations of a planetary system with an asteroid belt we investigate how the asteroid impact rate on the Earth is affected by the architecture of the planetary system. We find that the $\nu_6$ secular resonance plays an…

Asteroidal impact threats to the Earth will be predicted a century or more in advance. Changing an asteroid's albedo changes the force of Solar radiation on it, and hence its orbit. Albedo may be changed by applying a thin ($\sim 0.1\,\mu$)…

The metal content of asteroids is of great interest, not only for theories of their origins and the evolution of the solar system but, in the case of near-Earth objects (NEOs), also for impact mitigation planning and endeavors in the field…

The study of small ($<$300 m) near-Earth objects (NEOs) is important because they are more closely related than larger objects to the precursors of meteorites that fall on Earth. Collisions of these bodies with Earth are also more frequent.…

At this project considers the problem of analysis temperature deformation of elastic elements of the spacecraft. Spacecraft periodically appears in the earth's shadow on the sunny side when moving from the orbit. Abruptly changing the…

In this paper, a new parametrization of the relative motion between two satellites orbiting a central body is presented. The parametrization is based on the nodal elements: a set of angles describing the orbit geometry with respect to the…

We report Markov chain Monte Carlo fits of the thermophysical model of Wright (2007) to the fluxes of 10 asteroids which have been observed by both WISE and NEOWISE. This model is especially useful when one has observations of an asteroid…

A generic saddle-node bifurcation is proposed to modelize fast transitions of finite amplitude arising in geophysical (and perhaps other) contexts, when they result from the intrinsic dynamics of the system. The fast transition is…

Every year, a few metre-sized meteoroids impact the atmosphere of the Earth. Most (if not all) of them are undetectable before the impact. Therefore, predicting where and how they will fall seems to be an impossible task. In this letter we…

We investigate the qualitative characteristics of a test particle attracted to an irregular elongated body, modeled as a non-homogeneous straight segment with a variable linear density. By deriving the potential function in closed form, we…

Asteroid 2009 FD could impact Earth between 2185 and 2196. The long term propagation to the possible impacts and the intervening planetary encounters make 2009 FD one of the most challenging asteroids in terms of hazard assessment. To…

Asteroids are frequently colliding with small projectiles. Although each individual small collision is not very important, their cumulative effect can substantially change topography and also the overall shape of an asteroid. We run…

The Earth is impacted by 35-40 metre-scale objects every year. These meteoroids are the low mass end of impactors that can do damage on the ground. Despite this they are very poorly surveyed and characterised, too infrequent for ground…