相关论文: Non-Classical Expected Utility Theory

We study the design of efficient mechanisms under asymmetric awareness and information. Unawareness refers to the lack of conception rather than the lack of information. Assuming quasi-linear utilities and private values, we show that we…

The use of equilibrium models in economics springs from the desire for parsimonious models of economic phenomena that take human reasoning into account. This approach has been the cornerstone of modern economic theory. We explain why this…

Unaided human decision making appears to systematically violate consistency constraints imposed by normative theories; these biases in turn appear to justify the application of formal decision-analytic models. It is argued that both claims…

Unitary quantum theory, having no Born Rule, is non-probabilistic. Hence the notorious problem of reconciling it with the unpredictability and appearance of stochasticity in quantum measurements. Generalising and improving upon the…

In game theory and artificial intelligence, decision making models often involve maximizing expected utility, which does not respect ordinal invariance. In this paper, the author discusses the possibility of preserving ordinal invariance…

We study consumption dependence in the context of random utility and repeated choice. We show that, in the presence of consumption dependence, the random utility model is a misspecified model of repeated rational choice. This…

This paper shows how we can combine logical representations of actions and decision theory in such a manner that seems natural for both. In particular we assume an axiomatization of the domain in terms of situation calculus, using what is…

We develop a tractable model of realization utility that studies the role of reference-dependent S-shaped preferences in a dynamic investment setting with reinvestment. Our model generates both voluntarily realized gains and losses. It…

In the framework of an abstract statistical model we discuss how to use the solution of one estimation problem ({\it Problem A}) in order to construct an estimator in another, completely different, {\it Problem B}. As a solution of {\it…

Traditionally Bayesian decision-theoretic design of experiments proceeds by choosing a design to minimise expectation of a given loss function over the space of all designs. The loss function encapsulates the aim of the experiment, and the…

Non-Equilibrium Social Science (NESS) emphasizes dynamical phenomena, for instance the way political movements emerge or competing organizations interact. This paper argues that predictive analysis is an essential element of NESS, occupying…

We study the properties of a non-abelian gauge theory subjected to a gauge invariant constraint given by the classical equations of motion. The constraint is not imposed by hand, but appears naturally when we study a particular type of…

This article presents a pragmatic framework for making formal, utility-based decisions from statistical inferences. The method calculates an expected utility score for an intervention by combining Bayesian posterior probabilities of…

Quantum uncertainty is the cornerstone of quantum mechanics which underlies many counterintuitive nonclassical phenomena. Recent studies remarkably showed that it also fundamentally limits nonclassical correlation, and crucially, a…

Learning, whether natural or artificial, is a process of selection. It starts with a set of candidate options and selects the more successful ones. In the case of machine learning the selection is done based on empirical estimates of…

Critics object that the Everett view cannot make sense of quantum probabilities, in one or both of two ways: either it cannot make sense of probability at all, or it cannot explain why probability should be governed by the Born rule. David…

This paper studies n-player games where players beliefs about their opponents behaviour are capacities. The concept of an equilibrium under uncertainty was introduced J.Dow and S.Werlang (J Econ. Theory 64 (1994) 205--224) for two players…

Non equilibrium effective field theory is presented as an inhomogeneous field theory, using a formulation which is analogous to that of a gauge theory. This formulation underlines the importance of structural aspects of non-equilibrium,…

Regression plays a key role in many research areas and its variable selection is a classic and major problem. This study emphasizes cost of predictors to be purchased for future use, when we select a subset of them. Its economic aspect is…

Starting from considerations about meaning and subsequent use of asymmetric uncertainty intervals of experimental results, we review the issue of uncertainty propagation. We show that, using a probabilistic approach (the so-called Bayesian…