相关论文: A Bayesian approach to change point analysis of di…

We consider the problem of Bayesian inference for changepoints where the number and position of the changepoints are both unknown. In particular, we consider product partition models where it is possible to integrate out model parameters…

In this work we introduce a semi-parametric Bayesian change-point model, defining its time dynamic as a latent Markov process based on the Dirichlet process. We treat the number of change point as a random variable and we estimate it during…

We consider a prior for nonparametric Bayesian estimation which uses finite random series with a random number of terms. The prior is constructed through distributions on the number of basis functions and the associated coefficients. We…

In this paper, a Bayesian method for piecewise regression is adapted to handle counting processes data distributed as Poisson. A numerical code in Mathematica is developed and tested analyzing simulated data. The resulting method is…

We propose a Bayesian nonparametric mixture model for the reconstruction and prediction from observed time series data, of discretized stochastic dynamical systems, based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods (MCMC). Our results can be used…

We consider a change-point detection problem for a simple class of Piecewise Deterministic Markov Processes (PDMPs). A continuous-time PDMP is observed in discrete time and through noise, and the aim is to propose a numerical method to…

The purpose of this study is to provide a new methodology of how one can consistently estimate a change-point in time series data. In contrast with previous studies, the suggested methodology employs only the empirical spectral density and…

This paper is a note on the use of Bayesian nonparametric mixture models for continuous time series. We identify a key requirement for such models, and then establish that there is a single type of model which meets this requirement. As it…

We consider the problem of Bayesian inference for bi-variate data observed in time but with observation times which occur non-synchronously. In particular, this occurs in a wide variety of applications in finance, such as high-frequency…

A Bayesian approach is developed to analyze change points in multivariate time series and space-time data. The methodology is used to assess the impact of extended inundation on the ecosystem of the Gulf Plains bioregion in northern…

The main challenges that arise when adopting Gaussian Process priors in probabilistic modeling are how to carry out exact Bayesian inference and how to account for uncertainty on model parameters when making model-based predictions on…

The parameters of a discrete stationary Markov model are transition probabilities between states. Traditionally, data consist in sequences of observed states for a given number of individuals over the whole observation period. In such a…

Bayesian analysis often concerns an evaluation of models with different dimensionality as is necessary in, for example, model selection or mixture models. To facilitate this evaluation, transdimensional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)…

Multi-state models are frequently applied for representing processes evolving through a discrete set of state. Important classes of multi-state models arise when transitions between states may depend on the time since entry into the current…

This paper proposes a new Bayesian multiple change-point model which is based on the hidden Markov approach. The Dirichlet process hidden Markov model does not require the specification of the number of change-points a priori. Hence our…

This work addresses the problem of segmentation in time series data with respect to a statistical parameter of interest in Bayesian models. It is common to assume that the parameters are distinct within each segment. As such, many Bayesian…

Identification of local structure in intensive data -- such as time series, images, and higher dimensional processes -- is an important problem in astronomy. Since the data are typically generated by an inhomogeneous Poisson process, an…

Estimation of parameters of a diffusion based on discrete time observations poses a difficult problem due to the lack of a closed form expression for the likelihood. From a Bayesian computational perspective it can be casted as a missing…

Changepoints are abrupt variations in the generative parameters of a data sequence. Online detection of changepoints is useful in modelling and prediction of time series in application areas such as finance, biometrics, and robotics. While…

Change points in real-world systems mark significant regime shifts in system dynamics, possibly triggered by exogenous or endogenous factors. These points define regimes for the time evolution of the system and are crucial for understanding…