相关论文: Do medium range ensemble forecasts give useful pre…

Estimation of the generated power of renewable energy resources is in general important for planning operations as well as demand balance and power quality. This paper addresses the problem of the estimation of the short-term (3-hour ahead)…

Forecasts support decision making in a variety of applications. Statistical models can produce accurate forecasts given abundant training data, but when data is sparse, rapidly changing, or unavailable, statistical models may not be able to…

The sample median is often used in statistical analyses of physical or astronomical data wherein a central value must be found from samples polluted by elements which do not belong to the population of interest or when the underlying…

Machine learning methods have been shown to be effective for weather forecasting, based on the speed and accuracy compared to traditional numerical models. While early efforts primarily concentrated on deterministic predictions, the field…

Predicting future events is an important activity with applications across multiple fields and domains. For example, the capacity to foresee stock market trends, natural disasters, business developments, or political events can facilitate…

Traditionally, weather predictions are performed with the help of large complex models of physics, which utilize different atmospheric conditions over a long period of time. These conditions are often unstable because of perturbations of…

Loss reserving generally focuses on identifying a single model that can generate superior predictive performance. However, different loss reserving models specialise in capturing different aspects of loss data. This is recognised in…

The emerge of new technologies to synthesize and analyze big data with high-performance computing, has increased our capacity to more accurately predict crop yields. Recent research has shown that Machine learning (ML) can provide…

Aleatoric uncertainty quantification seeks for distributional knowledge of random responses, which is important for reliability analysis and robustness improvement in machine learning applications. Previous research on aleatoric uncertainty…

Weather forecasting is mostly based on the outputs of deterministic numerical weather forecasting models. Multiple runs of these models with different initial conditions result in forecast ensembles which is are used for estimating the…

Delay embedding---a method for reconstructing dynamical systems by delay coordinates---is widely used to forecast nonlinear time series as a model-free approach. When multivariate time series are observed, several existing frameworks can be…

Time-series forecasting plays an important role in many domains. Boosted by the advances in Deep Learning algorithms, it has for instance been used to predict wind power for eolic energy production, stock market fluctuations, or motor…

In this paper we survey the most recent advances in supervised machine learning and high-dimensional models for time series forecasting. We consider both linear and nonlinear alternatives. Among the linear methods we pay special attention…

Seasonal time series Forecasting remains a challenging problem due to the long-term dependency from seasonality. In this paper, we propose a two-stage framework to forecast univariate seasonal time series. The first stage explicitly learns…

The predictability of errors in deterministic temperature forecasts is investigated. More precisely, the aim is to issue warnings whenever the differences between forecast and verification exceed a given threshold. The warnings are…

Probabilistic forecasts comprehensively describe the uncertainty in the unknown future outcome, making them essential for decision making and risk management. While several methods have been introduced to evaluate probabilistic forecasts,…

Rainfall prediction is one of the challenging and uncertain tasks which has a significant impact on human society. Timely and accurate predictions can help to proactively reduce human and financial loss. This study presents a set of…

To address the uncertainty in outputs of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, ensembles of forecasts are used. To obtain such an ensemble of forecasts the NWP model is run multiple times, each time with different formulations and/or…

Multi-model ensembles provide a pragmatic approach to the representation of model uncertainty in climate prediction. However, such representations are inherently ad hoc, and, as shown, probability distributions of climate variables based on…

Accurately estimating high quantiles beyond the largest observed value is crucial for risk assessment and devising effective adaptation strategies to prevent a greater disaster. The generalized extreme value distribution is widely used for…