相关论文: Towards Landslide Predictions: Two Case Studies

Within the idealized scheme of a 1-dimensional Frenkel-Kontorova-like model, a special "quantized" sliding state was found for a solid lubricant confined between two periodic layers [PRL 97, 056101 (2006)]. This state, characterized by a…

The use of critical slowing down as an early warning indicator for regime switching in observations from stochastic environments and noisy dynamical models has been widely studied and implemented in recent years. Some systems, however, have…

Stochastic models for spatio-temporal transport face a critical trade-off between physical realism and interpretability. The advection model with a single constant velocity is interpretable but physically limited by its perfect correlation…

We study the instability development during a viscous liquid drop impacting a smooth substrate, using high speed photography. The onset time of the instability highly depends on the surrounding air pressure and the liquid viscosity: it…

When complex systems are driven to extinction by some external factor, their non-stationary dynamics can present an intermittent behaviour between relative tranquility and burst of activity whose consequences are often catastrophic. To…

The laminar-to-turbulent transition remains a fundamental and enduring challenge in fluid mechanics. Its complexity arises from the intrinsic nonlinearity and extreme sensitivity to external disturbances. This transition is critical in a…

Landslide susceptibility prediction has always been an important and challenging content. However, there are some uncertain problems to be solved in susceptibility modeling, such as the error of landslide samples and the complex nonlinear…

Extreme value analysis is an essential methodology in the study of rare and extreme events, which hold significant interest in various fields, particularly in the context of environmental sciences. Models that employ the exceedances of…

Understanding physical phenomena is a key competence that enables humans and animals to act and interact under uncertain perception in previously unseen environments containing novel object and their configurations. Developmental psychology…

We develop a discrete-event modeling framework that captures the progression of geophysical systems toward catastrophic failure through sequences of distinct damage events. By representing system evolution as a succession of temporally…

We study in this paper stability estimates for the fault inverse problem. In this problem, faults are assumed to be planar open surfaces in a half space elastic medium with known Lam\'e coefficients. A traction free condition is imposed on…

Many catastrophic events, including landslides, rockbursts, glacier breakoffs, and volcanic eruptions, are preceded by an observable acceleration phase that offers a critical window for early warning and hazard mitigation; however, the…

Anticipating bifurcation-induced transitions in dynamical systems has gained relevance in various fields of the natural, social, and economic sciences. Before the annihilation of a system's equilibrium point by means of a bifurcation, the…

Landslides are notoriously difficult to predict because numerous spatially and temporally varying factors contribute to slope stability. Artificial neural networks (ANN) have been shown to improve prediction accuracy but are largely…

Statistical properties of the one-dimensional spring-block (Burridge-Knopoff) model of earthquakes obeying the rate and state dependent friction law are studied by extensive computer simulations. The quantities computed include the…

Consider at a finite temperature $T$ a superfluid moving with a velocity $v$ relative to the thermal bath or its normal component. From Landau's argument there exists a critical $v_c (T)$ beyond which excitations can be spontaneously…

The coarse spatial resolution of gridded climate models, such as general circulation models, limits their direct use in projecting socially relevant variables like extreme precipitation. Most downscaling methods estimate the conditional…

We propose an elasto-plastic inspired friction model which incorporates interfacial stiffness. Steady state sliding friction is characterized by a generic nonmonotonic behavior, including both velocity weakening and strengthening branches.…

Mean field slider block models have provided an important entry point for understanding the behavior of discrete driven threshold systems. We present a method of constructing these models with an arbitrary frictional weakening function.…

We have developed a model that describes the major characteristics of a rupture, ranging from regular earthquakes (EQs) to slow slip events (SSEs), including episodic tremor and slip (ETS). Previous model predictions, while accurate, are…