相关论文: Towards Landslide Predictions: Two Case Studies

Accelerating displacements preceding some catastrophic landslides have been found empirically to follow a time-to-failure power law, corresponding to a finite-time singularity of the velocity $v \sim 1/(t_c-t)$ [{\it Voight}, 1988]. Here,…

It is necessary to study the kinematics of landslide prior to its failure for accurately estimating the time of landslide instability. Based on a spring block model, considering the Dieterich Ruina's friction, the kinematic displacement and…

Landslides exhibit intermittent gravity-driven downslope movements developing over days to years before a possible major collapse, commonly boosted by external events like precipitations and earthquakes. The reasons behind these episodic…

Landslides are nearly ubiquitous phenomena and pose severe threats to people, properties, and the environment. Investigators have for long attempted to estimate landslide hazard to determine where, when, and how destructive landslides are…

We present a one-dimensional numerical model based on elastically coupled sliders on a frictional incline of variable tilt. This very simple approach makes possible to study the precursors to the avalanche and to provide a rationalization…

Landslide susceptibility prediction is critical for geohazard risk assessment and mitigation. Conventional data-driven paradigm achieves high predictive accuracy but require sufficient conditioning factors and large-scale landslide…

Slope movements (e.g. landslides) are dynamic systems that are complex in time and space and closely linked to both inherited and current preparatory and triggering controls. It is not yet possible to assess in all cases conditions for…

Proper knowledge of velocity is required in accurately determining enormous destructive energy of a landslide. We present the first physics-based general analytical landslide velocity model that incorporates internal deformation and…

Data-driven machine-learning for predicting instantaneous and future fault-slip in laboratory experiments has recently progressed markedly due to large training data sets. In Earth however, earthquake interevent times range from 10's-100's…

We describe a 2D spring-block model for the transition from static to kinetic friction at an elastic slider/rigid substrate interface obeying a minimalistic friction law (Amontons-Coulomb). By using realistic boundary conditions, a number…

Landslide movements typically show a series of progressively shorter quiescent phases, punctuated by sudden bursts during an acceleration crisis. We propose that such intermittent rupture phenomena can be described by a log-periodic power…

The death toll and monetary damages from landslides continue to rise despite advancements in predictive modeling. The predictive capability of these models is limited as landslide databases used in training and assessing the models often…

Rainfall-induced landslides pose a growing risk worldwide as climate change intensifies extreme rainfall events. To provide sufficient evacuation time, landslide early warning systems (LEWS) for real-time disaster monitoring must estimate…

Models of faults incorporating slip rate- and state-dependent friction have reproduced phenomena from spontaneous slow, aseismic slip to earthquake-generating dynamic rupture. Numerical explorations of model parameter space regularly show…

Landslides, movement of soil and rock under the influence of gravity, are common phenomena that cause significant human and economic losses every year. Experts use heterogeneous features such as slope, elevation, land cover, lithology, rock…

Recent experiments indicate that frictional sliding occurs by the nucleation of detachment fronts at the contact interface that may appear well before the onset of global sliding. This intriguing precursory activity is not accounted for by…

We present a non-linear stability analysis of quasi-static slip in a spring-block model. The sliding interface is governed by rate- and state-dependent friction, with an intermediate state evolution law that spans between aging and slip…

We analyse the statistical pattern of seismicity before a 1-2 103 m3 chalk cliff collapse on the Normandie ocean shore, Western France. We show that a power law acceleration of seismicity rate and energy in both 40 Hz-1.5 kHz and 2 Hz-10kHz…

Catastrophes of all kinds can be roughly defined as short duration-large amplitude events following and followed by long periods of "ripening". Major earthquakes surely belong to the class of 'catastrophic' events. Because of the space-time…

Catastrophic transitions, where a system shifts abruptly between alternate steady states, are a generic feature of many nonlinear systems. Recently these regime shift were suggested as the mechanism underlies many ecological catastrophes,…