相关论文: Predicting Pre-monsoon Thunderstorms -A Statistica…

Many seemingly paradoxical effects are known in the predictions for outcomes of measurements made on pre- and post-selected quantum systems. A class of such effects, which we call ``logical pre- and post-selection paradoxes'', bear a…

Weather is a phenomenon that affects everything and everyone around us on a daily basis. Weather prediction has been an important point of study for decades as researchers have tried to predict the weather and climatic changes using…

Probabilistic forecasts in the form of probability distributions over future events have become popular in several fields including meteorology, hydrology, economics, and demography. In typical applications, many alternative statistical…

Issuing timely severe weather warnings helps mitigate potentially disastrous consequences. Recent advancements in Neural Weather Models (NWMs) offer a computationally inexpensive and fast approach for forecasting atmospheric environments on…

Logistic regression models are a popular and effective method to predict the probability of categorical response data. However inference for these models can become computationally prohibitive for large datasets. Here we adapt ideas from…

Human explanations are often contrastive, meaning that they do not answer the indeterminate "Why?" question, but instead "Why P, rather than Q?". Automatically generating contrastive explanations is challenging because the contrastive event…

Accurate weather forecasts are critical for societal planning and disaster preparedness. Yet these forecasts remain challenging to produce and evaluate, especially in regions with sparse observational coverage. Current evaluation of…

Forecast of optical turbulence and atmospheric parameters relevant for ground-based astronomy is becoming an important goal for telescope planning and AO instruments optimization in several major telescope. Such detailed and accurate…

This study evaluates the forecasting performance of recent language models (LLMs) on binary forecasting questions. We first introduce a novel dataset of over 600 binary forecasting questions, augmented with related news articles and their…

Atmospheric models used for weather and climate prediction are traditionally formulated in a deterministic manner. In other words, given a particular state of the resolved scale variables, the most likely forcing from the sub-grid scale…

Accurate trajectory prediction has long been a major challenge for autonomous driving (AD). Traditional data-driven models predominantly rely on statistical correlations, often overlooking the causal relationships that govern traffic…

Counting propositional logic was recently introduced in relation to randomized computation and shown able to logically characterize the full counting hierarchy. In this paper we aim to clarify the intuitive meaning and expressive power of…

Temporal logic rules are often used in control and robotics to provide structured, human-interpretable descriptions of trajectory data. These rules have numerous applications including safety validation using formal methods, constraining…

In this paper, we investigate meta-learning for combining forecasts generated by models of different types. While typical approaches for combining forecasts involve simple averaging, machine learning techniques enable more sophisticated…

Balancing a rare and serious possibility against a more common and less serious one is a familiar problem in many situations, such as the prediction of rare diseases. The relative costs of forecasting errors can be used for any prediction…

Given a nonlinear model, a probabilistic forecast may be obtained by Monte Carlo simulations. At a given forecast horizon, Monte Carlo simulations yield sets of discrete forecasts, which can be converted to density forecasts. The resulting…

Are the predictions of humans and language models affected by similar things? Research suggests that while comprehending language, humans make predictions about upcoming words, with more predictable words being processed more easily.…

Presupposition projection in conditionals is central to theories of meaning and pragmatics, yet it remains largely unevaluated in large language models. We address this gap through a parallel behavioral study comparing human judgments and…

The atmosphere is chaotic. This fundamental property of the climate system makes forecasting weather incredibly challenging: it's impossible to expect weather models to ever provide perfect predictions of the Earth system beyond timescales…

Extreme rainfall over the Indian monsoon region poses severe societal and infrastructural risks but remains difficult to predict at daily time scales due to stochastic convective triggering and multiscale atmospheric interactions. While…