相关论文: Gaussian model selection with an unknown variance

We propose a probabilistic enhancement of standard kernel Support Vector Machines for binary classification, in order to address the case when, along with given data sets, a description of uncertainty (e.g., error bounds) may be available…

A major limitation of machine learning (ML) prediction models is that they recover associational, rather than causal, predictive relationships between variables. In high-stakes automation applications of ML this is problematic, as the model…

If the prior probability distributions of all possible hypothetical true means and all possible observed means of a continuous variable are conditional on the universal set of all numbers (i.e., before the nature of a study is known and a…

Explainability and uncertainty quantification are key to trustable artificial intelligence. However, the reasoning behind uncertainty estimates is generally left unexplained. Identifying the drivers of uncertainty complements explanations…

We study admissibility of a subclass of generalized Bayes estimators of a multivariate normal vector when the variance is unknown, under scaled quadratic loss. Minimaxity is also established for certain of these estimators.

Real-world data contains aleatoric uncertainty - irreducible noise arising from imperfect measurements or from incomplete knowledge about the data generation process. Mean-variance estimation networks can learn this type of uncertainty but…

In all areas of human knowledge, datasets are increasing in both size and complexity, creating the need for richer statistical models. This trend is also true for economic data, where high-dimensional and nonlinear/nonparametric inference…

Several statistical models are given in the form of unnormalized densities, and calculation of the normalization constant is intractable. We propose estimation methods for such unnormalized models with missing data. The key concept is to…

We consider the problem of mean estimation assuming only finite variance. We study a new class of mean estimators constructed by integrating over random noise applied to a soft-truncated empirical mean estimator. For appropriate choices of…

Given $n$ i.i.d. samples from an unknown discrete distribution over an unknown set, the unseen species problem is to predict how many new outcomes would be observed in $m$ additional samples. For small $m$ we show that the Good-Toulmin…

We consider the fundamental problem of estimating the mean of a vector $y=X\beta+z$, where $X$ is an $n\times p$ design matrix in which one can have far more variables than observations, and $z$ is a stochastic error term--the so-called…

A new class of general exponential ranking models is introduced which we label angle-based models for ranking data. A consensus score vector is assumed, which assigns scores to a set of items, where the scores reflect a consensus view of…

We investigate methods for penalized regression in the presence of missing observations. This paper introduces a method for estimating the parameters which compensates for the missing observations. We first, derive an unbiased estimator of…

A mean field variational Bayes approach to support vector machines (SVMs) using the latent variable representation on Polson & Scott (2012) is presented. This representation allows circumvention of many of the shortcomings associated with…

We consider the problem of estimating the error variance in a general linear model when the error distribution is assumed to be spherically symmetric, but not necessary Gaussian. In particular we study the case of a scale mixture of…

This paper tackles the problem of selecting among several linear estimators in non-parametric regression; this includes model selection for linear regression, the choice of a regularization parameter in kernel ridge regression, spline…

We study the problem of causal discovery through targeted interventions. Starting from few observational measurements, we follow a Bayesian active learning approach to perform those experiments which, in expectation with respect to the…

In statistical exercises where there are several candidate models, the traditional approach is to select one model using some data driven criterion and use that model for estimation, testing and other purposes, ignoring the variability of…

Two non-intrusive uncertainty propagation approaches are proposed for the performance analysis of engineering systems described by expensive-to-evaluate deterministic computer models with parameters defined as interval variables. These…

We study a distributed estimation problem in which two remotely located parties, Alice and Bob, observe an unlimited number of i.i.d. samples corresponding to two different parts of a random vector. Alice can send $k$ bits on average to…