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Predicting the behavior of complex systems in engineering often involves significant uncertainty about operating conditions, such as external loads, environmental effects, and manufacturing variability. As a result, uncertainty…

统计计算 · 统计学 2025-07-17 S. Marelli , S. Schär , B. Sudret

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is an important component of molecular property prediction, particularly for drug discovery applications where model predictions direct experimental design and where unanticipated imprecision wastes valuable…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-05-21 Lior Hirschfeld , Kyle Swanson , Kevin Yang , Regina Barzilay , Connor W. Coley

This study presents a comprehensive framework for uncertainty quantification (UQ) and design optimization of plasma etching in semiconductor manufacturing. The framework is demonstrated using experimental measurements of etched depth…

科普物理 · 物理学 2025-11-10 Yongsu Jung , Minji Kang , Muyoung Kim , Min Sup Choi , Hyeong-U Kim , Jaekwang Kim

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is a promising approach to improve model reliability, yet quantifying the uncertainty of Large Language Models (LLMs) is non-trivial. In this work, we establish a connection between the uncertainty of LLMs…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2025-10-16 Mingda Li , Xinyu Li , Weinan Zhang , Longxuan Ma

The design of next-generation alloys through the Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) approach relies on multi-scale computer simulations to provide thermodynamic properties when experiments are difficult to conduct.…

In the context of Monte Carlo (MC) simulation of particle transport Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) addresses the issue of predicting non statistical errors affecting the physical results, i.e. errors deriving mainly from uncertainties in…

计算物理 · 物理学 2015-06-18 Paolo Saracco , Maria Grazia Pia

The vast majority of stochastic simulation models are imperfect in that they fail to exactly emulate real system dynamics. The inexactness of the simulation model, or model discrepancy, can impact the predictive accuracy and usefulness of…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2017-07-21 Matthew Plumlee , Henry Lam

Parameter identification is crucial in virtual engineering processes, yet determining appropriate system excitations for identifying specific parameters remains challenging. In practice, extensive experimental programs often fail to…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2026-05-07 Kevin Schmidt , Nicola Henkelmann , Christoph Mark , Johannes von Keler

In the last few decades, uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods have been used widely to ensure the robustness of engineering designs. This chapter aims to detail recent advances in popular uncertainty quantification methods used in…

统计计算 · 统计学 2022-11-08 Dinesh Kumar , Farid Ahmed , Shoaib Usman , Ayodeji Alajo , Syed Alam

Inverse Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is a process to quantify the uncertainties in random input parameters while achieving consistency between code simulations and physical observations. In this paper, we performed inverse UQ using an…

应用统计 · 统计学 2018-06-22 Xu Wu , Tomasz Kozlowski , Hadi Meidani , Koroush Shirvan

This paper presents a nonparametric statistical modeling method for quantifying uncertainty in stochastic gradient systems with isotropic diffusion. The central idea is to apply the diffusion maps algorithm to a training data set to produce…

动力系统 · 数学 2015-02-10 Tyrus Berry , John Harlim

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is essential for the reliable application of computational models in engineering and science. Among surrogate modeling techniques, Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) is particularly valuable for its…

统计计算 · 统计学 2025-12-15 Jinglai Li , Hongqiao Wang

We present an enriched formulation of the Least Squares (LSQ) regression method for Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) using generalised polynomial chaos (gPC). More specifically, we enrich the linear system with additional equations for the…

数值分析 · 数学 2023-08-09 Kyriakos D. Kantarakias , George Papadakis

Deep learning models for semantic segmentation are prone to poor performance in real-world applications due to the highly challenging nature of the task. Model uncertainty quantification (UQ) is one way to address this issue of lack of…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2022-11-04 Rishabh Singh , Jose C. Principe

Uncertainty quantification has been a core of the statistical machine learning, but its computational bottleneck has been a serious challenge for both Bayesians and frequentists. We propose a model-based framework in quantifying…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2019-06-04 Minsuk Shin , Young Lee , Jun S. Liu

While neural networks have demonstrated impressive performance across various tasks, accurately quantifying uncertainty in their predictions is essential to ensure their trustworthiness and enable widespread adoption in critical systems.…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-11-11 Joseph Wilson , Chris van der Heide , Liam Hodgkinson , Fred Roosta

An accurate description of information is relevant for a range of problems in atomistic machine learning (ML), such as crafting training sets, performing uncertainty quantification (UQ), or extracting physical insights from large datasets.…

材料科学 · 物理学 2025-05-02 Daniel Schwalbe-Koda , Sebastien Hamel , Babak Sadigh , Fei Zhou , Vincenzo Lordi

Molecular dynamics simulation is now a widespread approach for understanding complex systems on the atomistic scale. It finds applications from physics and chemistry to engineering, life and medical science. In the last decade, the approach…

计算物理 · 物理学 2021-04-28 Shunzhou Wan , Robert C. Sinclair , Peter V. Coveney

Quantifying uncertainties for machine learning models is a critical step to reduce human verification effort by detecting predictions with low confidence. This paper proposes a method for uncertainty quantification (UQ) of table structure…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2024-07-03 Kehinde Ajayi , Leizhen Zhang , Yi He , Jian Wu

We propose a rigorous framework for Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) in which the UQ objectives and the assumptions/information set are brought to the forefront. This framework, which we call \emph{Optimal Uncertainty Quantification} (OUQ),…