相关论文: Adaptive Poisson disorder problem
We consider a change detection problem in which the arrival rate of a Poisson process changes suddenly at some unknown and unobservable disorder time. It is assumed that the prior distribution of the disorder time is known. The objective is…
The claim arrival process to an insurance company is modeled by a compound Poisson process whose intensity and/or jump size distribution changes at an unobservable time with a known distribution. It is in the insurance company's interest to…
In the Wiener disorder problem, the drift of a Wiener process changes suddenly at some unknown and unobservable disorder time. The objective is to detect this change as quickly as possible after it happens. Earlier work on the Bayesian…
The problem of disorder seeks to determine a stopping time which is as close as possible to the unknown time of ``disorder'' when the observed process changes its probability characteristics. We give a partial answer to this question for…
A random sequence having two segments being the homogeneous Markov processes is registered. Each segment has his own transition probability law and the length of the segment is unknown and random. The transition probabilities of each…
A novel sequential change detection problem is proposed, in which the goal is to not only detect but also accelerate the change. Specifically, it is assumed that the sequentially collected observations are responses to treatments selected…
We study the Bayesian problems of detecting a change in the drift rate of an observable diffusion process with linear and exponential penalty costs for a detection delay. The optimal times of alarms are found as the first times at which the…
A multi-source quickest detection problem is considered. Assume there are two independent Poisson processes $X^{1}$ and $X^{2}$ with disorder times $\theta_{1}$ and $\theta_{2}$, respectively; that is, the intensities of $X^1$ and $X^2$…
In the classical quickest detection problem, one must detect as quickly as possible when a Brownian motion without drift "changes" into a Brownian motion with positive drift. The change occurs at an unknown "disorder" time with exponential…
Suppose that local characteristics of several independent compound Poisson and Wiener processes change suddenly and simultaneously at some unobservable disorder time. The problem is to detect the disorder time as quickly as possible after…
Sequential change diagnosis is the joint problem of detection and identification of a sudden and unobservable change in the distribution of a random sequence. In this problem, the common probability law of a sequence of i.i.d. random…
Many discrete-time optimal stopping problems are known to have more tractable limit forms based on a planar Poisson process. Using this tool we find a solution to the optimal stopping problem for i.i.d. sequence of $n$ discrete uniform…
We consider a change-point detection problem for a simple class of Piecewise Deterministic Markov Processes (PDMPs). A continuous-time PDMP is observed in discrete time and through noise, and the aim is to propose a numerical method to…
The paper deals with disorders detection in the multivariate stochastic process. We consider the multidimensional Poisson process or the multivariate renewal process. This class of processes can be used as a description of the distributed…
A new class of stochastic processes called independent and periodically identically distributed (i.p.i.d.) processes is defined to capture periodically varying statistical behavior. A novel Bayesian theory is developed for detecting a…
In this paper we consider the problem of estimating the parameters of a Poisson arrival process where the rate function is assumed to lie in the span of a known basis. Our goal is to estimate the basis expansions coefficients given a…
We study decision timing problems on finite horizon with Poissonian information arrivals. In our model, a decision maker wishes to optimally time her action in order to maximize her expected reward. The reward depends on an unobservable…
We study the Patient Assignment Scheduling (PAS) problem in a random environment that arises in the management of patient flow in the hospital systems, due to the stochastic nature of the arrivals as well as the Length of Stay distribution.…
We show that the optimal decision policy for several types of Bayesian sequential detection problems has a threshold switching curve structure on the space of posterior distributions. This is established by using lattice programming and…
Modeling the arrival process to an Emergency Department (ED) is the first step of all studies dealing with the patient flow within the ED. Many of them focus on the increasing phenomenon of ED overcrowding, which is afflicting hospitals all…