相关论文: Conjunctive Bayesian networks

Causal models are crucial for understanding complex systems and identifying causal relationships among variables. Even though causal models are extremely popular, conditional probability calculation of formulas involving interventions pose…

Discrete Bayesian Networks have been very successful as a framework both for inference and for expressing certain causal hypotheses. In this paper we present a class of graphical models called the chain event graph (CEG) models, that…

A market-maker-based prediction market lets forecasters aggregate information by editing a consensus probability distribution either directly or by trading securities that pay off contingent on an event of interest. Combinatorial prediction…

Continuous-time Bayesian networks (CTBNs) are graphical representations of multi-component continuous-time Markov processes as directed graphs. The edges in the network represent direct influences among components. The joint rate matrix of…

We present a new inference method based on approximate Bayesian computation for estimating parameters governing an entire network based on link-traced samples of that network. To do this, we first take summary statistics from an observed…

This paper investigates two prominent probabilistic neural modeling paradigms: Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) and Mixture Density Networks (MDNs) for uncertainty-aware nonlinear regression. While BNNs incorporate epistemic uncertainty by…

The paper extends Bayesian networks (BNs) by a mechanism for dynamic changes to the probability distributions represented by BNs. One application scenario is the process of knowledge acquisition of an observer interacting with a system. In…

Qualitative probabilistic networks (QPNs) combine the conditional independence assumptions of Bayesian networks with the qualitative properties of positive and negative dependence. They formalise various intuitive properties of positive…

In traffic forecasting, graph convolutional networks (GCNs), which model traffic flows as spatio-temporal graphs, have achieved remarkable performance. However, existing GCN-based methods heuristically define the graph structure as the…

Many complex systems in biology, physics, and engineering include a large number of state-variables, and measuring the full state of the system is often impossible. Typically, a set of sensors is used to measure part of the state-variables.…

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC for short) is a family of computational techniques which offer an almost automated solution in situations where evaluation of the posterior likelihood is computationally prohibitive, or whenever…

Bayesian networks (BN) are directed acyclic graphical (DAG) models that have been adopted into many fields for their strengths in transparency, interpretability, probabilistic reasoning, and causal modeling. Given a set of data, one hurdle…

Conditional Neural Processes~(CNPs) formulate distributions over functions and generate function observations with exact conditional likelihoods. CNPs, however, have limited expressivity for high-dimensional observations, since their…

Statistical methods for reconstructing networks from repeated measurements typically assume that all measurements are generated from the same underlying network structure. This need not be the case, however. People's social networks might…

Deep convolutional neural networks (DCNNs) have dominated the recent developments in computer vision through making various record-breaking models. However, it is still a great challenge to achieve powerful DCNNs in resource-limited…

Modeling natural phenomena with artificial neural networks (ANNs) often provides highly accurate predictions. However, ANNs often suffer from over-parameterization, complicating interpretation and raising uncertainty issues. Bayesian neural…

Bayesian learning is a powerful learning framework which combines the external information of the data (background information) with the internal information (training data) in a logically consistent way in inference and prediction. By…

Causal learning from data has received much attention recently. Bayesian networks can be used to capture causal relationships. There, one recovers a weighted directed acyclic graph in which random variables are represented by vertices, and…

Graph convolutional neural networks (GCNN) have numerous applications in different graph based learning tasks. Although the techniques obtain impressive results, they often fall short in accounting for the uncertainty associated with the…

Modern neural networks have proven to be powerful function approximators, providing state-of-the-art performance in a multitude of applications. They however fall short in their ability to quantify confidence in their predictions - this is…