相关论文: Time Consistent Dynamic Risk Processes, Cadlag Mod…

Risk measures like Marginal Expected Shortfall and Marginal Mean Excess quantify conditional risk and in particular, aid in the understanding of systemic risk. In many such scenarios, models exhibiting heavy tails in the margins and…

How an economic agent (a firm, an investor or a financial market) evaluates a contingent claim, say a European type of derivatives X, with maturity t? In this paper we study a mechanism of dynamic expectations and evaluations. We give the…

We study the risk assessment of uncertain cash flows in terms of dynamic convex risk measures for processes as introduced in Cheridito, Delbaen, and Kupper (2006). These risk measures take into account not only the amounts but also the…

Following several episodes of financial market turmoil in recent decades, changes in systemic risk have drawn growing attention. Therefore, we propose surveillance schemes for systemic risk, which allow to detect misspecified systemic risk…

In this paper, we consider a class of stochastic optimal control problems with risk constraints that are expressed as bounded probabilities of failure for particular initial states. We present here a martingale approach that diffuses a risk…

Expectile, as the minimizer of an asymmetric quadratic loss function, is a coherent risk measure and is helpful to use more information about the distribution of the considered risk. In this paper, we propose a new risk measure by replacing…

We introduce a framework for quantifying propagation of uncertainty arising in a dynamic setting. Specifically, we define dynamic uncertainty sets designed explicitly for discrete stochastic processes over a finite time horizon. These…

In this paper we provide a flexible framework allowing for a unified study of time consistency of risk measures and performance measures (also known as acceptability indices). The proposed framework not only integrates existing forms of…

Using cumulative residual processes, we propose joint goodness-of-fit tests for conditional means and variances functions in the context of nonlinear time series with martingale difference innovations. The main challenge comes from the fact…

Safety of stochastic dynamic systems in environments with dynamic obstacles is studied in this paper through the lens of stochastic barrier functions. We introduce both time-invariant and time-varying barrier certificates for discrete-time,…

Constant price impact functions, much used in financial literature, are shown to give rise to paradoxical outcomes since they do not allow for proper predictability removal: for instance the exploitation of a single large trade whose size…

The minimality of the penalization function associated with a convex risk measure is analyzed in this paper. First, in a general static framework, we provide necessary and sufficient conditions for a penalty function defined in a convex and…

When are dynamics valuable? In Bayesian environments with public signals and no intertemporal commitment, we study a seller who allocates an economically single-shot resource over time. We provide necessary and sufficient conditions under…

We propose a dynamical model for the estimation of Operational Risk in banking institutions. Operational Risk is the risk that a financial loss occurs as the result of failed processes. Examples of operational losses are the ones generated…

We consider portfolio selection when decisions based on a dynamic risk measure are affected by the use of a moving horizon, and the possible inconsistencies that this creates. By giving a formal treatment of time consistency which is…

In markets with transaction costs, consistent price systems play the same role as martingale measures in frictionless markets. We prove that if a continuous price process has conditional full support, then it admits consistent price systems…

This paper compares two different frameworks recently introduced in the literature for measuring risk in a multi-period setting. The first corresponds to applying a single coherent risk measure to the cumulative future costs, while the…

Ensuring safety through set invariance has proven to be a valuable method in various robotics and control applications. This paper introduces a comprehensive framework for the safe probabilistic invariance verification of both discrete- and…

We study an extension of the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) process that incorporates jumps at deterministic dates, referred to as stochastic discontinuities. Our main motivation stems from short-rate modelling in the context of overnight rates,…

We establish structural properties of optimal stopping problems under time-consistent dynamic (coherent) risk measures, focusing on value function monotonicity and the existence of control limit (threshold) optimal policies. While such…