相关论文: Shrinkage priors for Bayesian prediction

Given a random sample from a distribution with density function that depends on an unknown parameter $\theta$, we are interested in accurately estimating the true parametric density function at a future observation from the same…

Construction methods for prior densities are investigated from a predictive viewpoint. Predictive densities for future observables are constructed by using observed data. The simultaneous distribution of future observables and observed data…

Despite the dominant role of deep models in machine learning, limitations persist, including overconfident predictions, susceptibility to adversarial attacks, and underestimation of variability in predictions. The Bayesian paradigm provides…

In prediction problems with more predictors than observations, it can sometimes be helpful to use a joint probability model, $\pi(Y,X)$, rather than a purely conditional model, $\pi(Y \mid X)$, where $Y$ is a scalar response variable and…

Penalization of the likelihood by Jeffreys' invariant prior, or by a positive power thereof, is shown to produce finite-valued maximum penalized likelihood estimates in a broad class of binomial generalized linear models. The class of…

In this paper, we consider simultaneous estimation of Poisson parameters in situations where we can use side information in aggregated data. We use standardized squared error and entropy loss functions. Bayesian shrinkage estimators are…

Bayesian predictive inference propagates parameter uncertainty to quantities of interest through the posterior-predictive distribution. In practice, this is typically performed using a two-stage procedure: first approximating the posterior…

We study predictive density estimation under Kullback-Leibler loss in $\ell_0$-sparse Gaussian sequence models. We propose proper Bayes predictive density estimates and establish asymptotic minimaxity in sparse models. A surprise is the…

In many large-scale inverse problems, such as computed tomography and image deblurring, characterization of sharp edges in the solution is desired. Within the Bayesian approach to inverse problems, edge-preservation is often achieved using…

In all areas of human knowledge, datasets are increasing in both size and complexity, creating the need for richer statistical models. This trend is also true for economic data, where high-dimensional and nonlinear/nonparametric inference…

Modern approaches to perform Bayesian variable selection rely mostly on the use of shrinkage priors. That said, an ideal shrinkage prior should be adaptive to different signal levels, ensuring that small effects are ruled out, while keeping…

Classic Bayesian methods with complex models are frequently infeasible due to an intractable likelihood. Simulation-based inference methods, such as Approximate Bayesian Computing (ABC), calculate posteriors without accessing a likelihood…

Penalized regression methods, such as $L_1$ regularization, are routinely used in high-dimensional applications, and there is a rich literature on optimality properties under sparsity assumptions. In the Bayesian paradigm, sparsity is…

We review common situations in Bayesian latent variable models where the prior distribution that a researcher specifies differs from the prior distribution used during estimation. These situations can arise from the positive definite…

The James-Stein estimator is an estimator of the multivariate normal mean and dominates the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) under squared error loss. The original work inspired great interest in developing shrinkage estimators for a…

Motivated by the increasing use of and rapid changes in array technologies, we consider the prediction problem of fitting a linear regression relating a continuous outcome $Y$ to a large number of covariates $\mathbf {X}$, for example,…

Based on independently distributed $X_1 \sim N_p(\theta_1, \sigma^2_1 I_p)$ and $X_2 \sim N_p(\theta_2, \sigma^2_2 I_p)$, we consider the efficiency of various predictive density estimators for $Y_1 \sim N_p(\theta_1, \sigma^2_Y I_p)$, with…

Bayesian predictive inference provides a coherent description of entire predictive uncertainty through predictive distributions. We examine several widely used sparsity priors from the predictive (as opposed to estimation) inference…

Large Bayesian VARs are now widely used in empirical macroeconomics. One popular shrinkage prior in this setting is the natural conjugate prior as it facilitates posterior simulation and leads to a range of useful analytical results. This…

Variable selection has received widespread attention over the last decade as we routinely encounter high-throughput datasets in complex biological and environment research. Most Bayesian variable selection methods are restricted to mixture…