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Neural networks make accurate predictions but often fail to provide reliable uncertainty estimates, especially under covariate distribution shifts between training and testing. To address this problem, we propose a Bayesian framework for…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-12-22 Yuli Slavutsky , David M. Blei

Bayesian estimation approaches, which are capable of combining the information of experimental data from different likelihood functions to achieve high precisions, have been widely used in phase estimation via introducing a controllable…

量子物理 · 物理学 2021-07-02 Yuxiang Qiu , Min Zhuang , Jiahao Huang , Chaohong Lee

Recent work on Bayesian optimization has shown its effectiveness in global optimization of difficult black-box objective functions. Many real-world optimization problems of interest also have constraints which are unknown a priori. In this…

机器学习 · 统计学 2014-03-25 Michael A. Gelbart , Jasper Snoek , Ryan P. Adams

Shape restrictions such as monotonicity on functions often arise naturally in statistical modeling. We consider a Bayesian approach to the problem of estimation of a monotone regression function and testing for monotonicity. We construct a…

统计理论 · 数学 2020-08-05 Moumita Chakraborty , Subhashis Ghosal

Bayesian methods are actively used for parameter identification and uncertainty quantification when solving nonlinear inverse problems with random noise. However, there are only few theoretical results justifying the Bayesian approach.…

统计理论 · 数学 2020-02-04 Vladimir Spokoiny

Accurate assessment of systematic uncertainties is an increasingly vital task in physics studies, where large, high-dimensional datasets, like those collected at the Large Hadron Collider, hold the key to new discoveries. Common approaches…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-10-02 Alexis Romero , Kyle Cranmer , Daniel Whiteson

We propose a general solution to the problem of robust Bayesian inference in complex settings where outliers may be present. In practice, the automation of robust Bayesian analyses is important in the many applications involving large and…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-04-15 Jeremie Houssineau , David J. Nott

Recent advances in deep learning have led to a paradigm shift in the field of reversible steganography. A fundamental pillar of reversible steganography is predictive modelling which can be realised via deep neural networks. However,…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-03-08 Ching-Chun Chang

Inferring unknown conic sections on the basis of noisy data is a challenging problem with applications in computer vision. A major limitation of the currently available methods for conic sections is that estimation methods rely on the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-03-05 Subharup Guha , Sujit K. Ghosh

We propose a new method for conducting Bayesian prediction that delivers accurate predictions without correctly specifying the unknown true data generating process. A prior is defined over a class of plausible predictive models. After…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-08-24 Ruben Loaiza-Maya , Gael M. Martin , David T. Frazier

Uncertainty quantification for image data is dominated by complex deep learning methods, yet the field lacks an interpretable, mathematically grounded baseline. We propose Bayesian scattering to fill this gap, serving as a first-step…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-03-24 Bernardo Fichera , Zarko Ivkovic , Kjell Jorner , Philipp Hennig , Viacheslav Borovitskiy

Functional data analysis, which models data as realizations of random functions over a continuum, has emerged as a useful tool for time series data. Often, the goal is to infer the dynamic connections (or time-varying conditional…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-12-10 Chunshan Liu , Daniel R. Kowal , James Doss-Gollin , Marina Vannucci

Bayesian analysis of functions and curves is considered, where warping and other geometrical transformations are often required for meaningful comparisons. We focus on two applications involving the classification of mouse vertebrae shape…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2013-11-12 Wen Cheng , Ian L. Dryden , Xianzheng Huang

A Bayesian network is a widely used probabilistic graphical model with applications in knowledge discovery and prediction. Learning a Bayesian network (BN) from data can be cast as an optimization problem using the well-known…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2020-09-01 Zhenyu A. Liao , Charupriya Sharma , James Cussens , Peter van Beek

Functional data are defined as realizations of random functions (mostly smooth functions) varying over a continuum, which are usually collected with measurement errors on discretized grids. In order to accurately smooth noisy functional…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2016-12-13 Jingjing Yang , Dennis D. Cox , Jong Soo Lee , Peng Ren , Taeryon Choi

The functional linear regression model is a common tool to determine the relationship between a scalar outcome and a functional predictor seen as a function of time. This paper focuses on the Bayesian estimation of the support of the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2017-01-09 Paul-Marie Grollemund , Christophe Abraham , Meïli Baragatti , Pierre Pudlo

We propose a fast inference method for Bayesian nonlinear support vector machines that leverages stochastic variational inference and inducing points. Our experiments show that the proposed method is faster than competing Bayesian…

机器学习 · 统计学 2018-03-22 Florian Wenzel , Theo Galy-Fajou , Matthaeus Deutsch , Marius Kloft

Collected data, which is used for analysis or prediction tasks, often have a hierarchical structure, for example, data from various people performing the same task. Modeling the data's structure can improve the reliability of the derived…

应用统计 · 统计学 2018-11-12 Dennis Becker

Bayesian change-point detection, together with latent variable models, allows to perform segmentation over high-dimensional time-series. We assume that change-points lie on a lower-dimensional manifold where we aim to infer subsets of…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-11-04 Lorena Romero-Medrano , Pablo Moreno-Muñoz , Antonio Artés-Rodríguez

Within the past two decades, Gaussian process regression has been increasingly used for modeling dynamical systems due to some beneficial properties such as the bias variance trade-off and the strong connection to Bayesian mathematics. As…

系统与控制 · 电气工程与系统科学 2021-02-11 Thomas Beckers