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We propose a novel Bayesian approach to solve stochastic optimization problems that involve finding extrema of noisy, nonlinear functions. Previous work has focused on representing possible functions explicitly, which leads to a two-step…

机器学习 · 统计学 2012-11-13 Pedro A. Ortega , Jordi Grau-Moya , Tim Genewein , David Balduzzi , Daniel A. Braun

The ranking problem is to order a collection of units by some unobserved parameter, based on observations from the associated distribution. This problem arises naturally in a number of contexts, such as business, where we may want to rank…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2016-10-28 Toby Kenney , Hao He , Hong Gu

We present a survey of some of our recent results on Bayesian nonparametric inference for a multitude of stochastic processes. The common feature is that the prior distribution in the cases considered is on suitable sets of piecewise…

统计理论 · 数学 2024-06-04 Denis Belomestny , Frank van der Meulen , Peter Spreij

In causal inference, sensitivity analysis is important to assess the robustness of study conclusions to key assumptions. We perform sensitivity analysis of the assumption that missing outcomes are missing completely at random. We follow a…

统计理论 · 数学 2023-05-12 Bart Eggen , Stéphanie L. van der Pas , Aad W. van der Vaart

We study the Bayesian regret of the renowned Thompson Sampling algorithm in contextual bandits with binary losses and adversarially-selected contexts. We adapt the information-theoretic perspective of \cite{RvR16} to the contextual setting…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-03-07 Gergely Neu , Julia Olkhovskaya , Matteo Papini , Ludovic Schwartz

In a recent paper Birke and Bissantz (2008) considered the problem of nonparametric estimation in inverse regression models with convolution-type operators. For multivariate predictors nonparametric methods suffer from the curse of…

统计理论 · 数学 2013-03-19 T. Hildebrandt , N. Bissantz , H. Dette

Although linear regression models are fundamental tools in statistical science, the estimation results can be sensitive to outliers. While several robust methods have been proposed in frequentist frameworks, statistical inference is not…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-07-15 Shintaro Hashimoto , Shonosuke Sugasawa

The present paper introduces a fully objective Bayesian analysis to obtain the posterior distribution of an entropy measure. Notably, we consider the gamma distribution, which describes many natural phenomena in physics, engineering, and…

Approximate Bayesian inference on the basis of summary statistics is well-suited to complex problems for which the likelihood is either mathematically or computationally intractable. However the methods that use rejection suffer from the…

统计计算 · 统计学 2010-05-04 M. G. B. Blum , O. Francois

This paper presents a study of the large-sample behavior of the posterior distribution of a structural parameter which is partially identified by moment inequalities. The posterior density is derived based on the limited information…

统计理论 · 数学 2010-01-13 Yuan Liao , Wenxin Jiang

This article introduces a novel framework for nonparametric priors on real-valued random vectors, which can be viewed as a multivariate generalization of neutral-to-the right priors. It is based on randomizing the exponent measure of a…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-05-13 Florian Brück

Missing values are ubiquitous in (data) science, with potential detrimental consequences for any statistical analysis. As a consequence, a wealth of methods and theoretical results have been developed in recent years. Still, many questions…

统计理论 · 数学 2026-03-25 Badr-Eddine Chérief-Abdellatif , Jeffrey Näf

In performative prediction, the deployment of a predictive model triggers a shift in the data distribution. As these shifts are typically unknown ahead of time, the learner needs to deploy a model to get feedback about the distribution it…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-07-19 Meena Jagadeesan , Tijana Zrnic , Celestine Mendler-Dünner

We propose a new approach to Bayesian prediction that caters for models with a large number of parameters and is robust to model misspecification. Given a class of high-dimensional (but parametric) predictive models, this new approach…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-05-13 David T. Frazier , Ruben Loaiza-Maya , Gael M. Martin , Bonsoo Koo

Many modern experiments, such as microarray gene expression and genome-wide association studies, present the problem of estimating a large number of parallel effects. Bayesian inference is a popular approach for analyzing such data by…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-10-26 J G Liao , Arthur Berg , Timothy L McMurry

This book chapter introduces regression approaches and regression adjustment for Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC). Regression adjustment adjusts parameter values after rejection sampling in order to account for the imperfect match…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2017-07-06 Michael GB Blum

Although discrete mixture modeling has formed the backbone of the literature on Bayesian density estimation, there are some well known disadvantages. We propose an alternative class of priors based on random nonlinear functions of a uniform…

统计理论 · 数学 2015-03-19 Suprateek Kundu , David B. Dunson

The main object of Bayesian statistical inference is the determination of posterior distributions. Sometimes these laws are given for quantities devoid of empirical value. This serious drawback vanishes when one confines oneself to…

统计金融 · 定量金融 2008-12-02 Federico Bassetti

Prediction with the possibility of abstention (or selective prediction) is an important problem for error-critical machine learning applications. While well-studied in the classification setup, selective approaches to regression are much…

机器学习 · 统计学 2023-09-29 Fedor Noskov , Alexander Fishkov , Maxim Panov

In practice, it is desired to have estimates that are invariant under reparameterization. The invariance property of the estimators helps to formulate a unified solution to the underlying estimation problem. In robust Bayesian analysis, a…

统计理论 · 数学 2014-04-24 Mohammad Jafari Jozani , Nahid Jafari Tabrizi