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Estimating boundary curves has many applications such as economics, climate science, and medicine. Bayesian trend filtering has been developed as one of locally adaptive smoothing methods to estimate the non-stationary trend of data. This…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-11-13 Takahiro Onizuka , Fumiya Iwashige , Shintaro Hashimoto

The paper analyzes theoretically and empirically the performance of likelihood weighting (LW) on a subset of nodes in Bayesian networks. The proposed scheme requires fewer samples to converge due to reduction in sampling variance. The…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2012-07-02 Bozhena Bidyuk , Rina Dechter

This paper deals with the study of dependencies between two given events modeled by point processes. In particular, we focus on the context of DNA to detect favored or avoided distances between two given motifs along a genome suggesting…

统计理论 · 数学 2011-07-22 Laure Sansonnet

In the sparse normal means model, convergence of the Bayesian posterior distribution associated to spike and slab prior distributions is considered. The key sparsity hyperparameter is calibrated via marginal maximum likelihood empirical…

统计理论 · 数学 2018-10-17 Ismaël Castillo , Romain Mismer

Designs conditions for marine structures are typically informed by threshold-based extreme value analyses of oceanographic variables, in which excesses of a high threshold are modelled by a generalized Pareto (GP) distribution. Too low a…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2016-06-02 Paul Northrop , Nicolas Attalides , Philip Jonathan

The marginal likelihood plays an important role in many areas of Bayesian statistics such as parameter estimation, model comparison, and model averaging. In most applications, however, the marginal likelihood is not analytically tractable…

Insurance products frequently cover significant claims arising from a variety of sources. To model losses from these products accurately, actuarial models must account for high-severity claims. A widely used strategy is to apply a mixture…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-04-30 Sébastien Jessup , Mélina Mailhot , Mathieu Pigeon

Given a set of possible models (e.g., Bayesian network structures) and a data sample, in the unsupervised model selection problem the task is to choose the most accurate model with respect to the domain joint probability distribution. In…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2013-01-18 Sanjoy Dasgupta , Leonard Schulman

We propose a novel Bayesian model selection technique on linear mixed-effects models to compare multiple treatments with a control. A fully Bayesian approach is implemented to estimate the marginal inclusion probabilities that provide a…

应用统计 · 统计学 2015-09-28 Lei Gong , James M. Flegal , Stephen R. Spindler , Patricia L. Mote

The graphon (W-graph), including the stochastic block model as a special case, has been widely used in modeling and analyzing network data. This random graph model is well-characterized by its graphon function, and estimation of the graphon…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-09-07 Zhanhao Peng , Qing Zhou

We develop and evaluate point and interval estimates for the random effects $\theta_i$, having made observations $y_i|\theta_i\stackrel{\m athit{ind}}{\sim}N[\theta_i,V_i],i=1,...,k$ that follow a two-level Normal hierarchical model.…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2011-08-17 Carl Morris , Ruoxi Tang

Bayesian approaches are one of the primary methodologies to tackle an inverse problem in high dimensions. Such an inverse problem arises in hydrology to infer the permeability field given flow data in a porous media. It is common practice…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-10-02 Navid Shervani-Tabar

The Lasso is one of the most ubiquitous methods for variable selection in high-dimensional linear regression and has been studied extensively under different regimes. In a particular asymptotic setup entailing $n/p\to \text{constant}$, an…

统计理论 · 数学 2026-02-10 Lina Hidmi , Asaf Weinstein

Shrinkage prior has gained great successes in many data analysis, however, its applications mostly focus on the Bayesian modeling of sparse parameters. In this work, we will apply Bayesian shrinkage to model high dimensional parameter that…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-12-31 Qifan Song , Guang Cheng

Selective withdrawal is a desired phenomenon in transferring oil from large caverns in US Strategic petroleum reserve, because entrainment of oil at the time during withdrawal poses a risk of contaminating the environment. In order to…

流体动力学 · 物理学 2021-12-17 Sabbir Hassan , C. Dalton McKeon , Darryl James

Cosmological experiments often employ Bayesian workflows to derive constraints on cosmological and astrophysical parameters from their data. It has been shown that these constraints can be combined across different probes such as Planck and…

宇宙学与河外天体物理 · 物理学 2022-11-28 Harry Bevins , Will Handley , Pablo Lemos , Peter Sims , Eloy de Lera Acedo , Anastasia Fialkov

This paper is concerned with Bayesian inference when the likelihood is analytically intractable but can be unbiasedly estimated. We propose an annealed importance sampling procedure for estimating expectations with respect to the posterior.…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2014-02-26 M. -N. Tran , C. Strickland , M. K. Pitt , R. Kohn

Optimal designs minimize the number of experimental runs (samples) needed to accurately estimate model parameters, resulting in algorithms that, for instance, efficiently minimize parameter estimate variance. Governed by knowledge of past…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-02-03 Nicholas W. Barendregt , Emily G. Webb , Zachary P. Kilpatrick

We study system design problems stated as parameterized stochastic programs with a chance-constraint set. We adopt a Bayesian approach that requires the computation of a posterior predictive integral which is usually intractable. In…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-01-07 Prateek Jaiswal , Harsha Honnappa , Vinayak A. Rao

Estimating the sharing of genetic effects across different conditions is important to many statistical analyses of genomic data. The patterns of sharing arising from these data are often highly heterogeneous. To flexibly model these…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-06-14 Yunqi Yang , Peter Carbonetto , David Gerard , Matthew Stephens