相关论文: An alternative inference tool to total probability…

This article explains, and discusses the merits of, three approaches for analyzing the certainty with which statistical results can be extrapolated beyond the data gathered. Sometimes it may be possible to use more than one of these…

Mutual information is widely used in artificial intelligence, in a descriptive way, to measure the stochastic dependence of discrete random variables. In order to address questions such as the reliability of the empirical value, one must…

Mutual information is widely used in artificial intelligence, in a descriptive way, to measure the stochastic dependence of discrete random variables. In order to address questions such as the reliability of the empirical value, one must…

Noninformative uniform priors are staples of Bayesian inference, especially in Bayesian machine learning. This study challenges the assumption that they are optimal and their use in Bayesian inference yields optimal outcomes. Instead of…

Constraints are a natural choice for prior information in Bayesian inference. In various applications, the parameters of interest lie on the boundary of the constraint set. In this paper, we use a method that implicitly defines a…

Bayesian optimal design is a well-established approach to planning experiments. A distribution for the responses, i.e. a statistical model, is assumed which is dependent on unknown parameters. A utility function is then specified giving…

Stability selection is a versatile framework for structure estimation and variable selection in high-dimensional setting, primarily grounded in frequentist principles. In this paper, we propose an enhanced methodology that integrates…

Objective prior distributions represent an important tool that allows one to have the advantages of using the Bayesian framework even when information about the parameters of a model is not available. The usual objective approaches work off…

Estimating mutual information (MI) is a fundamental yet challenging task in data science and machine learning. This work proposes a new estimator for mutual information. Our main discovery is that a preliminary estimate of the data…

Bayesian probability theory is used as a framework to develop a formalism for the scientific method based on principles of inductive reasoning. The formalism allows for precise definitions of the key concepts in theories of physics and also…

Expert systems applications that involve uncertain inference can be represented by a multidimensional contingency table. These tables offer a general approach to inferring with uncertain evidence, because they can embody any form of…

We consider the common setting where one observes probability estimates for a large number of events, such as default risks for numerous bonds. Unfortunately, even with unbiased estimates, selecting events corresponding to the most extreme…

The traditional calculus-based introduction to statistical inference consists of a semester of probability followed by a semester of frequentist inference. Cobb (2015) challenges the statistical education community to rethink the…

There are three principle paradigms of statistical inference: (i) Bayesian, (ii) information-based and (iii) frequentist inference. We describe an objective prior (the weighting or $w$-prior) which unifies objective Bayes and…

For the normal linear model variable selection problem, we propose selection criteria based on a fully Bayes formulation with a generalization of Zellner's $g$-prior which allows for $p>n$. A special case of the prior formulation is seen to…

A spectral approach to Bayesian inference is presented. It pursues the emulation of the posterior probability density. The starting point is a series expansion of the likelihood function in terms of orthogonal polynomials. From this…

Counterfactual explanations utilize feature perturbations to analyze the outcome of an original decision and recommend an actionable recourse. We argue that it is beneficial to provide several alternative explanations rather than a single…

We propose a framework for general Bayesian inference. We argue that a valid update of a prior belief distribution to a posterior can be made for parameters which are connected to observations through a loss function rather than the…

Multivariate categorical data are common in many fields. We are motivated by election polls studies assessing evidence of changes in voters opinions with their candidates preferences in the 2016 United States Presidential primaries or…

Bayesian analysis is increasingly popular for use in social science and other application areas where the data are observations from an informative sample. An informative sampling design leads to inclusion probabilities that are correlated…