相关论文: A decision-theoretic approach to reliable message …

It is widely believed that theory is useful in physics because it describes simple systems and that strictly empirical phenomenological approaches are necessary for complex biological and social systems. Here we prove based upon an analysis…

Automated decision making is used routinely throughout our everyday life. Recommender systems decide which jobs, movies, or other user profiles might be interesting to us. Spell checkers help us to make good use of language. Fraud detection…

Belief propagation is a widely used message passing method for the solution of probabilistic models on networks such as epidemic models, spin models, and Bayesian graphical models, but it suffers from the serious shortcoming that it works…

Although the gulf between the theory and practice in Information Systems is much lamented, few researchers have offered a way forward except through a number of (failed) attempts to develop a single systematic theory for Information…

We use a decision-theoretic framework to study the problem of forecasting discrete outcomes when the forecaster is unable to discriminate among a set of plausible forecast distributions because of partial identification or concerns about…

The ability to make decisions based on data, with its inherent uncertainties and variability, is a complex and vital skill in the modern world. The need for such quantitative critical thinking occurs in many different contexts, and while it…

Advancing our understanding of human behavior hinges on the ability of theories to unveil the mechanisms underlying such behaviors. Measuring the ability of theories and models to predict unobserved behaviors provides a principled method to…

Artificial intelligence systems are being increasingly deployed due to their potential to increase the efficiency, scale, consistency, fairness, and accuracy of decisions. However, as many of these systems are opaque in their operation,…

A subjective expected utility policy making centre, managing complex, dynamic systems, needs to draw on the expertise of a variety of disparate panels of experts and integrate this information coherently. To achieve this, diverse supporting…

This paper studies a game in which an informed sender with state-independent preferences uses verifiable messages to convince a receiver to choose an action from a finite set. We characterize the equilibrium outcomes of the game and compare…

Byzantine reliable broadcast is a fundamental primitive in distributed systems that allows a set of processes to agree on a message broadcast by a dedicated process, even when some of them are malicious (Byzantine). It guarantees that no…

We propose a general approach to quantitatively assessing the risk and vulnerability of artificial intelligence (AI) systems to biased decisions. The guiding principle of the proposed approach is that any AI algorithm must outperform a…

The ubiquity of machine learning based predictive models in modern society naturally leads people to ask how trustworthy those models are? In predictive modeling, it is quite common to induce a trade-off between accuracy and…

As artificial agents become increasingly capable, what internal structure is *necessary* for an agent to act competently under uncertainty? Classical results show that optimal control can be *implemented* using belief states or world…

We propose a multi-agent epistemic logic of asynchronous announcements, where truthful announcements are publicly sent but individually received by agents, and in the order in which they were sent. Additional to epistemic modalities the…

Emergent collective group processes and capabilities have been studied through analysis of transactive memory, measures of group task performance, and group intelligence, among others. In their approach to collective behaviors, these…

Tasks that require information about the world imply a trade-off between the time spent on observation and the variance of the response. In particular, fast decisions need to rely on uncertain information. However, standard estimates of…

Some scientific research questions ask to guide decisions and others do not. By their nature frequentist hypothesis-tests yield a dichotomous test decision as result, rendering them rather inappropriate for latter types of research…

One major function of social networks (e.g., massive online social networks) is the dissemination of information such as scientific knowledge, news, and rumors. Information can be propagated by the users of the network via natural…

All natural things process and transform information. They receive environmental information as input, and transform it into appropriate output responses. Much of science is dedicated to building models of such systems -- algorithmic…