相关论文: Robust Inference of Trees

The recursive and hierarchical structure of full rooted trees is applicable to represent statistical models in various areas, such as data compression, image processing, and machine learning. In most of these cases, the full rooted tree is…

We introduce inference trees (ITs), a new class of inference methods that build on ideas from Monte Carlo tree search to perform adaptive sampling in a manner that balances exploration with exploitation, ensures consistency, and alleviates…

Based on decision trees, many fields have arguably made tremendous progress in recent years. In simple words, decision trees use the strategy of "divide-and-conquer" to divide the complex problem on the dependency between input features and…

Tree-based priors for probability distributions are usually specified using a predetermined, data-independent collection of candidate recursive partitions of the sample space. To characterize an unknown target density in detail over the…

Decision trees are widely used for non-linear modeling, as they capture interactions between predictors while producing inherently interpretable models. Despite their popularity, performing inference on the non-linear fit remains largely…

We consider statistical inference in the density estimation model using a tree-based Bayesian approach, with Optional P\'olya trees as prior distribution. We derive near-optimal convergence rates for corresponding posterior distributions…

Understanding propagation structures in graph diffusion processes, such as epidemic spread or misinformation diffusion, is a fundamental yet challenging problem. While existing methods primarily focus on source localization, they cannot…

Regression trees are a popular machine learning algorithm that fit piecewise constant models by recursively partitioning the predictor space. This paper focuses on statistical inference for a data-dependent model obtained from a fitted…

We develop stochastic variational inference, a scalable algorithm for approximating posterior distributions. We develop this technique for a large class of probabilistic models and we demonstrate it with two probabilistic topic models,…

Probabilistic, hierarchically coherent forecasting is a key problem in many practical forecasting applications -- the goal is to obtain coherent probabilistic predictions for a large number of time series arranged in a pre-specified tree…

We study the influence of the seed in random trees grown according to the uniform attachment model, also known as uniform random recursive trees. We show that different seeds lead to different distributions of limiting trees from a total…

To infer a diffusion network based on observations from historical diffusion processes, existing approaches assume that observation data contain exact occurrence time of each node infection, or at least the eventual infection statuses of…

Inferential models (IMs) are data-dependent, imprecise-probabilistic structures designed to quantify uncertainty about unknowns. As the name suggests, the focus has been on uncertainty quantification for inference and on its reliability…

We consider the problem of learning classification trees that are robust to distribution shifts between training and testing/deployment data. This problem arises frequently in high stakes settings such as public health and social work where…

Random forests construct each tree with a different, randomised representation of the feature space. Their uniform voting cannot correct errors in regions where trees with incorrect representations probabilistically outnumber correct ones,…

We propose Dirichlet Simplex Nest, a class of probabilistic models suitable for a variety of data types, and develop fast and provably accurate inference algorithms by accounting for the model's convex geometry and low dimensional…

Most machine learning models operate under the assumption that the training, testing and deployment data is independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.). This assumption doesn't generally hold true in a natural setting. Usually, the…

Although adversarial examples and model robustness have been extensively studied in the context of linear models and neural networks, research on this issue in tree-based models and how to make tree-based models robust against adversarial…

In problems that involve input parameter information gathered from multiple data sources with varying reliability, incorporating decision makers' trust on different sources in optimization models can potentially improve solution…

The Dirichlet Belief Network~(DirBN) has been recently proposed as a promising approach in learning interpretable deep latent representations for objects. In this work, we leverage its interpretable modelling architecture and propose a deep…