相关论文: Updating beliefs with incomplete observations

Approximate Bayesian computing is a powerful likelihood-free method that has grown increasingly popular since early applications in population genetics. However, complications arise in the theoretical justification for Bayesian inference…

Conformal prediction is a theoretically grounded framework for constructing predictive intervals. We study conformal prediction with missing values in the covariates -- a setting that brings new challenges to uncertainty quantification. We…

We provide a reason for Bayesian updating, in the Bernoulli case, even when it is assumed that observations are independent and identically distributed with a fixed but unknown parameter $\theta_0$. The motivation relies on the use of loss…

In clinical prediction modeling, model updating refers to the practice of modifying a prediction model before it is used in a new setting. In the context of logistic regression for a binary outcome, one of the simplest updating methods is a…

There is an obvious need for improving the performance and accuracy of a Bayesian network as new data is observed. Because of errors in model construction and changes in the dynamics of the domains, we cannot afford to ignore the…

Accurate uncertainty estimates are important in sequential model-based decision-making tasks such as Bayesian optimization. However, these estimates can be imperfect if the data violates assumptions made by the model (e.g., Gaussianity).…

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) have recently regained a significant amount of attention in the deep learning community due to the development of scalable approximate Bayesian inference techniques. There are several advantages of using…

In this paper, we introduce a method for approximating the solution to inference and optimization tasks in uncertain and deterministic reasoning. Such tasks are in general intractable for exact algorithms because of the large number of…

Our comment on Garc\'ia-Donato et al. (2025). "Model uncertainty and missing data: An objective Bayesian perspective" explores a further extension of the proposed methodology. Specifically, we consider the sequential setting where…

In this paper we consider the estimation of unknown parameters in Bayesian inverse problems. In most cases of practical interest, there are several barriers to performing such estimation, This includes a numerical approximation of a…

Crawford's et al. (2021) article on estimation of discrete choice models with unobserved or latent consideration sets, presents a unified framework to address the problem in practice by using "sufficient sets", defined as a combination of…

We develop and apply two calibration procedures for checking the coverage of approximate Bayesian credible sets including intervals estimated using Monte Carlo methods. The user has an ideal prior and likelihood, but generates a credible…

This paper revisits the work of Rauch et al. (1965) and develops a novel method for recursive maximum likelihood particle filtering for general state-space models. The new method is based on statistical analysis of incomplete observations…

We provide a general solution to a fundamental open problem in Bayesian inference, namely poor uncertainty quantification, from a frequency standpoint, of Bayesian methods in misspecified models. While existing solutions are based on…

We present a model for studying communities of epistemically interacting agents who update their belief states by averaging (in a specified way) the belief states of other agents in the community. The agents in our model have a rich belief…

Conditioning is the generally agreed-upon method for updating probability distributions when one learns that an event is certainly true. But it has been argued that we need other rules, in particular the rule of cross-entropy minimization,…

We develop a new method for generating prediction sets that combines the flexibility of conformal methods with an estimate of the conditional distribution $P_{Y \mid X}$. Existing methods, such as conformalized quantile regression and…

The causal (belief) network is a well-known graphical structure for representing independencies in a joint probability distribution. The exact methods and the approximation methods, which perform probabilistic inference in causal networks,…

Implementing Bayesian inference is often computationally challenging in applications involving complex models, and sometimes calculating the likelihood itself is difficult. Synthetic likelihood is one approach for carrying out inference…

This paper presents an innovative approach, called credal wrapper, to formulating a credal set representation of model averaging for Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) and deep ensembles (DEs), capable of improving uncertainty estimation in…