相关论文: Updating beliefs with incomplete observations

Currently, there is renewed interest in the problem, raised by Shafer in 1985, of updating probabilities when observations are incomplete (or set-valued). This is a fundamental problem, and of particular interest for Bayesian networks.…

In this paper we formulate the problem of inference under incomplete information in very general terms. This includes modelling the process responsible for the incompleteness, which we call the incompleteness process. We allow the process…

Models of updating a set of priors either do not allow a decision maker to make inference about her priors (full bayesian updating or FB) or require an extreme degree of selection (maximum likelihood updating or ML). I characterize a…

We propose a framework for general Bayesian inference. We argue that a valid update of a prior belief distribution to a posterior can be made for parameters which are connected to observations through a loss function rather than the…

Bayesian analyses are often performed using so-called noninformative priors, with a view to achieving objective inference about unknown parameters on which available data depends. Noninformative priors depend on the relationship of the data…

Bayesian inference is limited in scope because it cannot be applied in idealized contexts where none of the hypotheses under consideration is true and because it is committed to always using the likelihood as a measure of evidential…

A stream of algorithmic advances has steadily increased the popularity of the Bayesian approach as an inference paradigm, both from the theoretical and applied perspective. Even with apparent successes in numerous application fields, a…

When the historical data are limited, the conditional probabilities associated with the nodes of Bayesian networks are uncertain and can be empirically estimated. Second order estimation methods provide a framework for both estimating the…

Belief updating in Bayes nets, a well known computationally hard problem, has recently been approximated by several deterministic algorithms, and by various randomized approximation algorithms. Deterministic algorithms usually provide…

We present an algorithmic solution to the problem of incremental belief updating in the context of Monte Carlo inference in Bayesian statistical models represented by probabilistic programs. Given a model and a sample-approximated…

When machine learning systems meet real world applications, accuracy is only one of several requirements. In this paper, we assay a complementary perspective originating from the increasing availability of pre-trained and regularly…

We present an algorithm, called Predict, for updating beliefs in causal networks quantified with order-of-magnitude probabilities. The algorithm takes advantage of both the structure and the quantification of the network and presents a…

Discovery of an accurate causal Bayesian network structure from observational data can be useful in many areas of science. Often the discoveries are made under uncertainty, which can be expressed as probabilities. To guide the use of such…

I propose a normative updating rule, extended Bayesianism, for the incorporation of probabilistic information arising from the process of becoming more aware. Extended Bayesianism generalizes standard Bayesian updating to allow the…

The information describing the conditions of a system or a person is constantly evolving and may become obsolete and contradict other information. A database, therefore, must be consistently updated upon the acquisition of new valid…

We develop a domain-theoretic framework for imprecise probability reasoning and inference on general topological spaces with a countably based continuous lattice of open sets. We address two distinct forms of uncertainty: partial or…

Bayesian models quantify uncertainty and facilitate optimal decision-making in downstream applications. For most models, however, practitioners are forced to use approximate inference techniques that lead to sub-optimal decisions due to…

Independence-based (IB) assignments to Bayesian belief networks were originally proposed as abductive explanations. IB assignments assign fewer variables in abductive explanations than do schemes assigning values to all evidentially…

As the information available to lay users through autonomous data sources continues to increase, mediators become important to ensure that the wealth of information available is tapped effectively. A key challenge that these information…

Weighted Updating generalizes Bayesian updating, allowing for biased beliefs by weighting the likelihood function and prior distribution with positive real exponents. I provide a rigorous foundation for the model by showing that…