相关论文: A Theory of Cross-Validation Error

In the network literature, a wide range of statistical models has been proposed to exploit structural patterns in the data. Therefore, model selection between different models is a fundamental problem. However, there remains a lack of…

Datasets are rarely a realistic approximation of the target population. Say, prevalence is misrepresented, image quality is above clinical standards, etc. This mismatch is known as sampling bias. Sampling biases are a major hindrance for…

In M-open problems where no true model can be conceptualized, it is common to back off from modeling and merely seek good prediction. Even in M-complete problems, taking a predictive approach can be very useful. Stacking is a model…

Across machine learning (ML) sub-disciplines, researchers make explicit mathematical assumptions in order to facilitate proof-writing. We note that, specifically in the area of fairness-accuracy trade-off optimization scholarship, similar…

Breakthroughs in machine learning are rapidly changing science and society, yet our fundamental understanding of this technology has lagged far behind. Indeed, one of the central tenets of the field, the bias-variance trade-off, appears to…

The increasing application of machine learning techniques in everyday decision-making processes has brought concerns about the fairness of algorithmic decision-making. This paper concerns the problem of collider bias which produces spurious…

The evaluation of supervised machine learning models is a critical stage in the development of reliable predictive systems. Despite the widespread availability of machine learning libraries and automated workflows, model assessment is often…

K-fold cross-validation is a widely used tool for assessing classifier performance. The reproducibility crisis faced by artificial intelligence partly results from the irreproducibility of reported k-fold cross-validation-based performance…

Many modern data analyses benefit from explicitly modeling dependence structure in data -- such as measurements across time or space, ordered words in a sentence, or genes in a genome. A gold standard evaluation technique is structured…

As machine learning applications grow increasingly ubiquitous and complex, they face an increasing set of requirements beyond accuracy. The prevalent approach to handle this challenge is to aggregate a weighted combination of requirement…

A/B testing is ubiquitous within the machine learning and data science operations of internet companies. Generically, the idea is to perform a statistical test of the hypothesis that a new feature is better than the existing platform---for…

When performing supervised learning with the model selected using validation error from sample splitting and cross validation, the minimum value of the validation error can be biased downward. We propose two simple methods that use the…

Super learner algorithm can be applied to combine results of multiple base learners to improve quality of predictions. The default method for verification of super learner results is by nested cross validation. It has been proposed by…

We present a reformulation of the regression and classification, which aims to validate the result of a machine learning algorithm. Our reformulation simplifies the original problem and validates the result of the machine learning algorithm…

Most machine learning techniques are based upon statistical learning theory, often simplified for the sake of computing speed. This paper is focused on the uncertainty aspect of mathematical modeling in machine learning. Regression analysis…

This paper develops detailed mathematical statistical theory of a new class of cross-validation techniques of local linear kernel hazards and their multiplicative bias corrections. The new class of cross-validation combines principles of…

Many structured prediction tasks in machine vision have a collection of acceptable answers, instead of one definitive ground truth answer. Segmentation of images, for example, is subject to human labeling bias. Similarly, there are multiple…

Proper scoring rules are methods for encouraging honest assessment of probability distributions. Just like likelihood, a proper scoring rule can be applied to supply an unbiased estimating equation for any statistical model, and the theory…

In this tutorial paper, we first define mean squared error, variance, covariance, and bias of both random variables and classification/predictor models. Then, we formulate the true and generalization errors of the model for both training…

Cross-validation (CV) is a technique used to estimate generalization error for prediction models. For pipeline modeling algorithms (i.e. modeling procedures with multiple steps), it has been recommended the entire sequence of steps be…