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Reasoning language models have set state-of-the-art (SOTA) records on many challenging benchmarks, enabled by multi-step reasoning induced using reinforcement learning. However, like previous language models, reasoning models are prone to…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2025-07-21 Zhiting Mei , Christina Zhang , Tenny Yin , Justin Lidard , Ola Shorinwa , Anirudha Majumdar

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) research has primarily focused on closed-book factual question answering (QA), while contextual QA remains unexplored, despite its importance in real-world applications. In this work, we focus on UQ for the…

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly assisting users in the real world, yet their reliability remains a concern. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) has been heralded as a tool to enhance human-LLM collaboration by enabling users to…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2025-06-10 Siddartha Devic , Tejas Srinivasan , Jesse Thomason , Willie Neiswanger , Vatsal Sharan

The rapid proliferation of large language models (LLMs) has stimulated researchers to seek effective and efficient approaches to deal with LLM hallucinations and low-quality outputs. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a key element of…

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is pivotal in enhancing the robustness, reliability, and interpretability of Machine Learning (ML) systems for healthcare, optimizing resources and improving patient care. Despite the emergence of ML-based…

Neural networks (NNs) are currently changing the computational paradigm on how to combine data with mathematical laws in physics and engineering in a profound way, tackling challenging inverse and ill-posed problems not solvable with…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-02-08 Apostolos F Psaros , Xuhui Meng , Zongren Zou , Ling Guo , George Em Karniadakis

We present $\Delta$-UQ -- a novel, general-purpose uncertainty estimator using the concept of anchoring in predictive models. Anchoring works by first transforming the input into a tuple consisting of an anchor point drawn from a prior…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-10-06 Rushil Anirudh , Jayaraman J. Thiagarajan

Large language models (LLMs) have transformed natural language processing, but their reliable deployment requires effective uncertainty quantification (UQ). Existing UQ methods are often heuristic and lack a probabilistic interpretation.…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2025-11-06 Haoyi Song , Ruihan Ji , Naichen Shi , Fan Lai , Raed Al Kontar

Reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for deploying large language models (LLMs) in safety-critical scenarios, as it enables them to abstain from responding when uncertain, thereby avoiding hallucinations, i.e., plausible…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2026-02-09 Xingtao Zhao , Hao Peng , Dingli Su , Xianghua Zeng , Chunyang Liu , Jinzhi Liao , Philip S. Yu

In nuclear reactor system design and safety analysis, the Best Estimate plus Uncertainty (BEPU) methodology requires that computer model output uncertainties must be quantified in order to prove that the investigated design stays within…

统计计算 · 统计学 2018-06-22 Xu Wu , Tomasz Kozlowski , Hadi Meidani , Koroush Shirvan

The rapid advancement of large language models (LLMs) has transformed the landscape of natural language processing, enabling breakthroughs across a wide range of areas including question answering, machine translation, and text…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2025-10-15 Sungmin Kang , Yavuz Faruk Bakman , Duygu Nur Yaldiz , Baturalp Buyukates , Salman Avestimehr

Recent work has shown that the hidden states of large language models contain signals useful for uncertainty estimation and hallucination detection, motivating a growing interest in efficient probe-based approaches. Yet it remains unclear…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2026-04-14 Joe Stacey , Hadas Orgad , Kentaro Inui , Benjamin Heinzerling , Nafise Sadat Moosavi

On top of machine learning models, uncertainty quantification (UQ) functions as an essential layer of safety assurance that could lead to more principled decision making by enabling sound risk assessment and management. The safety and…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-03-28 Venkat Nemani , Luca Biggio , Xun Huan , Zhen Hu , Olga Fink , Anh Tran , Yan Wang , Xiaoge Zhang , Chao Hu

Large molecular representation models pre-trained on massive unlabeled data have shown great success in predicting molecular properties. However, these models may tend to overfit the fine-tuning data, resulting in over-confident predictions…

化学物理 · 物理学 2024-04-18 Yinghao Li , Lingkai Kong , Yuanqi Du , Yue Yu , Yuchen Zhuang , Wenhao Mu , Chao Zhang

As Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in real-world applications, reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) becomes critical for safe and effective use. Most existing UQ approaches for language models aim to produce a…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2026-04-14 Maiya Goloburda , Roman Vashurin , Fedor Chernogorsky , Nurkhan Laiyk , Daniil Orel , Preslav Nakov , Maxim Panov

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) in Language Models (LMs) is key to improving their safety and reliability. Evaluations often use metrics like AUROC to assess how well UQ methods (e.g., negative sequence probabilities) correlate with task…

Effective Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) represents a key aspect for reliable deployment of Large Language Models (LLMs) in automated decision-making and beyond. Yet, for LLM generation with multiple choice structure, the state-of-the-art…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-11-18 Ramzi Dakhmouche , Adrien Letellier , Hossein Gorji

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly utilized for machine translation, yet their predictions often exhibit uncertainties that hinder interpretability and user trust. Effectively visualizing these uncertainties can enhance the…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2025-02-26 Jin Hyun Park , Utsawb Laminchhane , Umer Farooq , Uma Sivakumar , Arpan Kumar

Quantifying uncertainties for machine learning models is a critical step to reduce human verification effort by detecting predictions with low confidence. This paper proposes a method for uncertainty quantification (UQ) of table structure…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2024-07-03 Kehinde Ajayi , Leizhen Zhang , Yi He , Jian Wu

Estimating uncertainty in Large Language Models (LLMs) is important for properly evaluating LLMs, and ensuring safety for users. However, prior approaches to uncertainty estimation focus on the final answer in generated text, ignoring…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2024-12-12 Eric Bigelow , Ari Holtzman , Hidenori Tanaka , Tomer Ullman