相关论文: High Performance, Low Reliability: Uncertainty Ben…

Tabular foundation models like TabPFN and TabICL achieve state-of-the-art performance through in-context learning, yet their architectures remain fundamentally opaque. We introduce KernelICL, a framework to enhance tabular foundation models…

Deep tabular modelling increasingly relies on in-context learning where, during inference, a model receives a set of $(x,y)$ pairs as context and predicts labels for new inputs without weight updates. We challenge the prevailing view that…

This paper explores generalised probabilistic modelling and uncertainty estimation in comparative LLM-as-a-judge frameworks. We show that existing Product-of-Experts methods are specific cases of a broader framework, enabling diverse…

Reward models (RMs) are essential for aligning large language models (LLM) with human expectations. However, existing RMs struggle to capture the stochastic and uncertain nature of human preferences and fail to assess the reliability of…

In system analysis and design optimization, multiple computational models are typically available to represent a given physical system. These models can be broadly classified as high-fidelity models, which provide highly accurate…

Stochastic simulation is widely used to study complex systems composed of various interconnected subprocesses, such as input processes, routing and control logic, optimization routines, and data-driven decision modules. In practice, these…

Tabular Language Models (TLMs) have been claimed to achieve emergent generalization for tabular prediction. We conduct a systematic re-evaluation of Tabula-8B as a representative TLM, utilizing 165 datasets from the UniPredict benchmark.…

Large Language Models (LLMs) excel in text generation, reasoning, and decision-making, enabling their adoption in high-stakes domains such as healthcare, law, and transportation. However, their reliability is a major concern, as they often…

Foundation models (FMs) have achieved significant success across various tasks, leading to research on benchmarks for reasoning abilities. However, there is a lack of studies on FMs performance in exceptional scenarios, which we define as…

Instruction finetuning is standard practice for improving LLM performance, yet it remains unclear whether it enhances reasoning or merely induces surface-level pattern matching. We investigate this by evaluating base and instruction-tuned…

When deployed for risk-sensitive tasks, deep neural networks must include an uncertainty estimation mechanism. Here we examine the relationship between deep architectures and their respective training regimes, with their corresponding…

Uncertainty quantification is a set of techniques that measure confidence in language models. They can be used, for example, to detect hallucinations or alert users to review uncertain predictions. To be useful, these confidence scores must…

Large language models (LLMs) often miscommunicate their uncertainty: repeated queries can produce divergent answers, yet generated responses are typically unhedged or hedged in ways that do not reflect this variability. This conveys…

ML models have errors when used for predictions. The errors are unknown but can be quantified by model uncertainty. When multiple ML models are trained using the same training points, their model uncertainties may be statistically…

Driven by the transition towards a climate-neutral energy system, accurate energy time series forecasting is critical for planning and operation. Yet, it remains largely a dataset-specific task, requiring comprehensive training data,…

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown remarkable performance across a wide range of downstream tasks. However, it is challenging for users to discern whether the responses of LLM are generated with certainty or are fabricated to meet user…

Consistency, which refers to the capability of generating the same predictions for semantically similar contexts, is a highly desirable property for a sound language understanding model. Although recent pretrained language models (PLMs)…

Large Language Models (LLMs) are prone to generating fluent but incorrect content, known as confabulation, which poses increasing risks in multi-turn or agentic applications where outputs may be reused as context. In this work, we…

Large Language Models (LLMs) tend to be unreliable in the factuality of their answers. To address this problem, NLP researchers have proposed a range of techniques to estimate LLM's confidence over facts. However, due to the lack of a…

Recognizing whether outputs from large language models (LLMs) contain faithfulness hallucination is crucial for real-world applications, e.g., retrieval-augmented generation and summarization. In this paper, we introduce FaithLens, a…