相关论文: Likelihood-Free Inference for Multivariate General…

Likelihood-free approaches are appealing for performing inference on complex dependence models, either because it is not possible to formulate a likelihood function, or its evaluation is very computationally costly. This is the case for…

Sequential neural posterior estimation (SNPE) techniques have been recently proposed for dealing with simulation-based models with intractable likelihoods. Unlike approximate Bayesian computation, SNPE techniques learn the posterior from…

We study empirical Bayes estimation in high-dimensional linear regression. To facilitate computationally efficient estimation of the underlying prior, we adopt a variational empirical Bayes approach, introduced originally in Carbonetto and…

Generative models and those with computationally intractable likelihoods are widely used to describe complex systems in the natural sciences, social sciences, and engineering. Fitting these models to data requires likelihood-free inference…

Nonparametric empirical Bayes methods provide a flexible and attractive approach to high-dimensional data analysis. One particularly elegant empirical Bayes methodology, involving the Kiefer-Wolfowitz nonparametric maximum likelihood…

L\'evy processes are widely used in financial modeling due to their ability to capture discontinuities and heavy tails, which are common in high-frequency asset return data. However, parameter estimation remains a challenge when associated…

When the sample path of a Hawkes process is observed discretely, such that only the total event counts in disjoint time intervals are known, the likelihood function becomes intractable. To overcome the challenge of likelihood-based…

Flexible Bayesian models are typically constructed using limits of large parametric models with a multitude of parameters that are often uninterpretable. In this article, we offer a novel alternative by constructing an exponentially tilted…

When the likelihood is analytically unavailable and computationally intractable, approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) has emerged as a widely used methodology for approximate posterior inference; however, it suffers from severe…

Neural posterior estimation (NPE) and neural likelihood estimation (NLE) are machine learning approaches that provide accurate posterior, and likelihood, approximations in complex modeling scenarios, and in situations where conducting…

Neural Posterior Estimation (NPE) enables rapid parameter inference for complex simulators with intractable likelihoods. NPE trains an inference network to estimate a probability density over parameters given data, typically assumed to be…

Likelihood-free inference refers to inference when a likelihood function cannot be explicitly evaluated, which is often the case for models based on simulators. Most of the literature is based on sample-based `Approximate Bayesian…

Diagnosing the internal state of Li-ion batteries is critical for battery research, operation of real-world systems, and prognostic evaluation of remaining lifetime. By using physics-based models to perform probabilistic parameter…

Models of stochastic processes are widely used in almost all fields of science. Theory validation, parameter estimation, and prediction all require model calibration and statistical inference using data. However, data are almost always…

We develop an empirical Bayes (EB) G-modeling framework for short-panel linear models with nonparametric prior for the random intercepts, slopes, dynamics, and non-spherical error variances. We establish identification and consistency of…

Making inference with spatial extremal dependence models can be computationally burdensome since they involve intractable and/or censored likelihoods. Building on recent advances in likelihood-free inference with neural Bayes estimators,…

We conduct non-asymptotic analysis on the mean-field variational inference for approximating posterior distributions in complex Bayesian models that may involve latent variables. We show that the mean-field approximation to the posterior…

Simulation-based inference with neural posterior estimation (NPE) often yields overconfident and unreliable posteriors under limited simulation budgets. To address this, we propose DRO-NPE, a distributionally robust approach that replaces…

The marginal likelihood, or evidence, plays a central role in Bayesian model selection, yet remains notoriously challenging to compute in likelihood-free settings. While Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) techniques such as Sequential Neural…

The empirical Bayes $g$-modeling approach via the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (NPMLE) is widely used for large-scale estimation and inference in the normal means problem, yet theoretical guarantees for uncertainty…