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We propose an $L^2$ norm for stationary Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) models. We look at ARMA models within the Hilbert space of the past with present of a true purely linearly non-deterministic stationary process $X_t$, and compute…

We derive a closed-form expression for the finite predictor coefficients of multivariate ARMA (autoregressive moving-average) processes. The expression is given in terms of several explicit matrices that are of fixed sizes independent of…

This work presents a Bayesian approach for the estimation of Beta Autoregressive Moving Average ($\beta$ARMA) models. We discuss standard choice for the prior distributions and employ a Hamiltonian Monte Carlo algorithm to sample from the…

In this paper we introduce the class of beta seasonal autoregressive moving average ($\beta$SARMA) models for modeling and forecasting time series data that assume values in the standard unit interval. It generalizes the class of beta…

The Unit-Lindley is a one-parameter family of distributions in $(0,1)$ obtained from an appropriate transformation of the Lindley distribution. In this work, we introduce a class of dynamical time series models for continuous random…

The autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model is one of the most important models in time series analysis.We consider the Bayesian estimation of an unknown spectral density in the ARMA model.In the i.i.d. cases, Komaki showed that Bayesian…

A class of continuous-time autoregressive moving average (CARMA) process driven by simple semi-Levy measure is defined and its properties are studied. We discuss some new insights on the structure of the semi-Levy measure which is described…

The estimation of normalizing constants is a fundamental step in probabilistic model comparison. Sequential Monte Carlo methods may be used for this task and have the advantage of being inherently parallelizable. However, the standard…

Regression models based on the log-symmetric family of distributions are particularly useful when the response is strictly positive and asymmetric. In this paper, we propose a class of quantile regression models based on reparameterized…

In practice, several time series exhibit long-range dependence or persistence in their observations, leading to the development of a number of estimation and prediction methodologies to account for the slowly decaying autocorrelations. The…

Fitting autoregressive moving average (ARMA) time series models requires model identification before parameter estimation. Model identification involves determining the order of the autoregressive and moving average components which is…

This paper is concerned with deriving the limit distributions of stopping times devised to sequentially uncover structural breaks in the parameters of an autoregressive moving average, ARMA, time series. The stopping rules are defined as…

This paper is about vector autoregressive-moving average (VARMA) models with time-dependent coefficients to represent non-stationary time series. Contrarily to other papers in the univariate case, the coefficients depend on time but not on…

Copula-based time series models can model univariate and stationary time series in a flexible way by decomposing the joint distribution of consecutive observations into a copula and the stationary distribution. Implicitly this approach…

Threshold autoregressive moving-average (TARMA) models are popular in time series analysis due to their ability to parsimoniously describe several complex dynamical features. However, neither theory nor estimation methods are currently…

We present an approach to clustering time series data using a model-based generalization of the K-Means algorithm which we call K-Models. We prove the convergence of this general algorithm and relate it to the hard-EM algorithm for mixture…

Periodicity is a common feature of time series. For finite-dimensional data, periodic autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models have been extensively studied. In functional time series analysis, AR models have been extended to incorporate…

Continuous-time autoregressive moving average (CARMA) processes have recently been used widely in the modeling of non-uniformly spaced data and as a tool for dealing with high-frequency data of the form $Y_{n\Delta}, n=0,1,2,...$, where…

In this article, we first propose the modified Hannan-Rissanen Method for estimating the parameters of the autoregressive moving average (ARMA) process with symmetric stable noise and symmetric stable generalized autoregressive conditional…

Time series in natural sciences, such as hydrology and climatology, and other environmental applications, often consist of continuous observations constrained to the unit interval (0,1). Traditional Gaussian-based models fail to capture…