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The ability to perform causal reasoning is widely considered a core feature of intelligence. In this work, we investigate whether large language models (LLMs) can coherently reason about causality. Much of the existing work in natural…

Some argue scale is all what is needed to achieve AI, covering even causal models. We make it clear that large language models (LLMs) cannot be causal and give reason onto why sometimes we might feel otherwise. To this end, we define and…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2023-08-28 Matej Zečević , Moritz Willig , Devendra Singh Dhami , Kristian Kersting

The causal capabilities of large language models (LLMs) are a matter of significant debate, with critical implications for the use of LLMs in societally impactful domains such as medicine, science, law, and policy. We conduct a "behavorial"…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2024-08-21 Emre Kıcıman , Robert Ness , Amit Sharma , Chenhao Tan

Causal learning is the cognitive process of developing the capability of making causal inferences based on available information, often guided by normative principles. This process is prone to errors and biases, such as the illusion of…

Causal learning is the cognitive process of developing the capability of making causal inferences based on available information, often guided by normative principles. This process is prone to errors and biases, such as the illusion of…

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in domains where causal reasoning matters, yet it remains unclear whether their judgments reflect normative causal computation, human-like shortcuts, or brittle pattern matching. We…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2026-03-16 Hanna M. Dettki , Charley M. Wu , Bob Rehder

While large language models (LLMs) play increasingly significant roles in society, research shows they continue to generate content that reflects social bias against sensitive groups. Existing benchmarks effectively identify these biases,…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2026-03-12 Tian Xie , Tongxin Yin , Vaishakh Keshava , Xueru Zhang , Siddhartha Reddy Jonnalagadda

Causal inference is one of the hallmarks of human intelligence. While the field of CausalNLP has attracted much interest in the recent years, existing causal inference datasets in NLP primarily rely on discovering causality from empirical…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2024-04-18 Zhijing Jin , Jiarui Liu , Zhiheng Lyu , Spencer Poff , Mrinmaya Sachan , Rada Mihalcea , Mona Diab , Bernhard Schölkopf

With the rise of Large Language Models(LLMs), it has become crucial to understand their capabilities and limitations in deciphering and explaining the complex web of causal relationships that language entails. Current methods use either…

We posit that large language models (LLMs) should be capable of expressing their intrinsic uncertainty in natural language. For example, if the LLM is equally likely to output two contradicting answers to the same question, then its…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2024-09-27 Gal Yona , Roee Aharoni , Mor Geva

This study investigates the efficacy of Large Language Models (LLMs) in causal discovery. Using newly available open-source LLMs, OLMo and BLOOM, which provide access to their pre-training corpora, we investigate how LLMs address causal…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2025-10-13 Tao Feng , Lizhen Qu , Niket Tandon , Zhuang Li , Xiaoxi Kang , Gholamreza Haffari

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed to automatically label and analyze educational dialogue at scale, yet current pipelines lack reliable ways to detect when models are wrong. We investigate whether reasoning generated by…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2026-02-11 Bakhtawar Ahtisham , Kirk Vanacore , Zhuqian Zhou , Jinsook Lee , Rene F. Kizilcec

Causal reasoning is a core component of intelligence. Large language models (LLMs) have shown impressive capabilities in generating human-like text, raising questions about whether their responses reflect true understanding or statistical…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2025-06-09 Hanna M. Dettki , Brenden M. Lake , Charley M. Wu , Bob Rehder

In context learning (ICL) underpins recent advances in large language models (LLMs), although its role and performance in causal reasoning remains unclear. Causal reasoning demands multihop composition and strict conjunctive control, and…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2025-12-12 Amartya Roy , Elamparithy M , Kripabandhu Ghosh , Ponnurangam Kumaraguru , Adrian de Wynter

We assess the ability of large language models (LLMs) to answer causal questions by analyzing their strengths and weaknesses against three types of causal question. We believe that current LLMs can answer causal questions with existing…

Causal reasoning, the ability to identify cause-and-effect relationship, is crucial in human thinking. Although large language models (LLMs) succeed in many NLP tasks, it is still challenging for them to conduct complex causal reasoning…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2023-05-31 Xiao Liu , Da Yin , Chen Zhang , Yansong Feng , Dongyan Zhao

Large language models (LLMs) offer the potential to automate a large number of tasks that previously have not been possible to automate, including some in science. There is considerable interest in whether LLMs can automate the process of…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2024-12-17 Nick Huntington-Klein , Eleanor J. Murray

Large Language Models (LLMs) can achieve strong performance on many tasks by producing step-by-step reasoning before giving a final output, often referred to as chain-of-thought reasoning (CoT). It is tempting to interpret these CoT…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2023-12-12 Miles Turpin , Julian Michael , Ethan Perez , Samuel R. Bowman

As large language models (LLMs) witness increasing deployment in complex, high-stakes decision-making scenarios, it becomes imperative to ground their reasoning in causality rather than spurious correlations. However, strong performance on…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2026-02-24 Yuzhe Wang , Yaochen Zhu , Jundong Li

Large language models (LLMs) are demonstrably capable of cross-lingual transfer, but can produce inconsistent output when prompted with the same queries written in different languages. To understand how language models are able to…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2025-09-29 Zheng Wei Lim , Alham Fikri Aji , Trevor Cohn
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