相关论文: Bayesian Conformal-Projective Prediction

Conformal Prediction (CP) has recently received a tremendous amount of interest, leading to a wide range of new theoretical and methodological results for predictive inference with formal theoretical guarantees. However, the vast majority…

Conformal prediction uses past experience to determine precise levels of confidence in new predictions. Given an error probability $\epsilon$, together with a method that makes a prediction $\hat{y}$ of a label $y$, it produces a set of…

In model development, model calibration and validation play complementary roles toward learning reliable models. In this article, we expand the Bayesian Validation Metric framework to a general calibration and validation framework by…

Conformal prediction offers a distribution-free framework for constructing prediction sets with coverage guarantees. In practice, multiple valid conformal prediction sets may be available, arising from different models or methodologies.…

We consider the problem of Bayesian inference in the family of probabilistic models implicitly defined by stochastic generative models of data. In scientific fields ranging from population biology to cosmology, low-level mechanistic…

Bayesian modeling helps applied researchers articulate assumptions about their data and develop models tailored for specific applications. Thanks to good methods for approximate posterior inference, researchers can now easily build, use,…

Existing conformal prediction algorithms estimate prediction intervals at target confidence levels to characterize the performance of a regression model on new test samples. However, considering an autonomous system consisting of multiple…

Bayesian posterior distributions naturally represent parameter uncertainty informed by data. However, when the parameter space is complex, as in many nonparametric settings where it is infinite-dimensional or combinatorially large, standard…

Determinantal point processes (DPPs) are an elegant model for encoding probabilities over subsets, such as shopping baskets, of a ground set, such as an item catalog. They are useful for a number of machine learning tasks, including product…

Conformal prediction methods are statistical tools designed to quantify uncertainty and generate predictive sets with guaranteed coverage probabilities. This work introduces an innovative refinement to these methods for classification…

Model uncertainty is pervasive in real world analysis situations and is an often-neglected issue in applied statistics. However, standard approaches to the research process do not address the inherent uncertainty in model building and,…

The concepts of Bayesian prediction, model comparison, and model selection have developed significantly over the last decade. As a result, the Bayesian community has witnessed a rapid growth in theoretical and applied contributions to…

Conformal prediction (CP), a distribution-free uncertainty quantification (UQ) framework, reliably provides valid predictive inference for black-box models. CP constructs prediction sets that contain the true output with a specified…

Conformal prediction offers finite-sample coverage guarantees under minimal assumptions. However, existing methods treat the entire modeling process as a black box, overlooking opportunities to exploit and understand modular structure. We…

Conformal prediction constructs a confidence set for an unobserved response of a feature vector based on previous identically distributed and exchangeable observations of responses and features. It has a coverage guarantee at any nominal…

The Gaussian process (GP) is a Bayesian nonparametric paradigm that is widely adopted for uncertainty quantification (UQ) in a number of safety-critical applications, including robotics, healthcare, as well as surveillance. The consistency…

Machine-learning techniques are essential in modern collider research, yet their probabilistic outputs often lack calibrated uncertainty estimates and finite-sample guarantees, limiting their direct use in statistical inference and…

Conformal prediction, a post-hoc, distribution-free, finite-sample method of uncertainty quantification that offers formal coverage guarantees under the assumption of data exchangeability. Unfortunately, the resulting uncertainty regions…

Predictive coding (PC) is an influential theory of information processing in the brain, providing a biologically plausible alternative to backpropagation. It is motivated in terms of Bayesian inference, as hidden states and parameters are…

Zero-inflated outcomes, where responses are zero with positive probability and otherwise continuous, are common in biomedical, environmental, and social science studies. We propose a conformal prediction based framework that provides…