相关论文: Multicalibration Boosting: Theory, Convergence, an…

In this paper we propose a boosting based multiview learning algorithm, referred to as PB-MVBoost, which iteratively learns i) weights over view-specific voters capturing view-specific information; and ii) weights over views by optimizing a…

Conformal prediction has emerged as a cutting-edge methodology in statistics and machine learning, providing prediction intervals with finite-sample frequentist coverage guarantees. Yet, its interplay with Bayesian statistics, often…

We propose an unsupervised tree boosting algorithm for inferring the underlying sampling distribution of an i.i.d. sample based on fitting additive tree ensembles in a fashion analogous to supervised tree boosting. Integral to the algorithm…

Statistical learning methods for automated variable selection, such as the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO), elastic nets, and gradient boosting, have become increasingly popular tools for building powerful prediction…

Estimates of predictive uncertainty are important for accurate model-based planning and reinforcement learning. However, predictive uncertainties---especially ones derived from modern deep learning systems---can be inaccurate and impose a…

Boosting has attracted much research attention in the past decade. The success of boosting algorithms may be interpreted in terms of the margin theory. Recently it has been shown that generalization error of classifiers can be obtained by…

Recalibrating probabilistic classifiers is vital for enhancing the reliability and accuracy of predictive models. Despite the development of numerous recalibration algorithms, there is still a lack of a comprehensive theory that integrates…

Accurately predicting the probabilities of user feedback, such as clicks and conversions, is critical for advertisement ranking and bidding. However, there often exist unwanted mismatches between predicted probabilities and true likelihoods…

Calibration ensures that probabilistic forecasts meaningfully capture uncertainty by requiring that predicted probabilities align with empirical frequencies. However, many existing calibration methods are specialized for post-hoc…

A canonical desideratum for prediction problems is that performance guarantees should hold not just on average over the population, but also for meaningful subpopulations within the overall population. But what constitutes a meaningful…

Despite the general consensus in transport research community that model calibration and validation are necessary to enhance model predictive performance, there exist significant inconsistencies in the literature. This is primarily due to a…

This paper presents a computationally efficient variant of gradient boosting for multi-class classification and multi-output regression tasks. Standard gradient boosting uses a 1-vs-all strategy for classifications tasks with more than two…

Survival analysis is an important problem in healthcare because it models the relationship between an individual's covariates and the onset time of an event of interest (e.g., death). It is important for survival models to be…

Continual learning for large language models is typically evaluated through accuracy retention under sequential fine-tuning. We argue that this perspective is incomplete, because uncertainty reliability can degrade earlier and more sharply…

This paper introduces a boosted conformal procedure designed to tailor conformalized prediction intervals toward specific desired properties, such as enhanced conditional coverage or reduced interval length. We employ machine learning…

We study three classical machine learning algorithms in the context of algorithmic fairness: adaptive boosting, support vector machines, and logistic regression. Our goal is to maintain the high accuracy of these learning algorithms while…

The wide-spread adoption of representation learning technologies in clinical decision making strongly emphasizes the need for characterizing model reliability and enabling rigorous introspection of model behavior. While the former need is…

Machine learning approaches for image classification have led to impressive advances in that field. For example, convolutional neural networks are able to achieve remarkable image classification accuracy across a wide range of applications…

Bayesian statistics has gained popularity in psychological research due to its intuitive uncertainty quantification and convenient information-updating rules. In many applications, however, prior distributions are introduced merely as…

Multicalibration is a notion of fairness for predictors that requires them to provide calibrated predictions across a large set of protected groups. Multicalibration is known to be a distinct goal than loss minimization, even for simple…