相关论文: Multivariate Financial Forecasting using the Chron…

Pretrained time series models have enabled inference-only forecasting systems that produce accurate predictions without task-specific training. However, existing approaches largely focus on univariate forecasting, limiting their…

Financial time series forecasting presents significant challenges due to complex nonlinear relationships, temporal dependencies, variable interdependencies and limited data availability, particularly for tasks involving low-frequency data,…

Time series foundation models (FMs) have emerged as a popular paradigm for zero-shot multi-domain forecasting. These models are trained on numerous diverse datasets and claim to be effective forecasters across multiple different time series…

We introduce Chronos, a simple yet effective framework for pretrained probabilistic time series models. Chronos tokenizes time series values using scaling and quantization into a fixed vocabulary and trains existing transformer-based…

Time-series foundation models have emerged as a new paradigm for forecasting, yet their ability to effectively leverage exogenous features -- critical for electricity demand forecasting -- remains unclear. This paper empirically evaluates…

The success of large-scale pre-training paradigm, exemplified by Large Language Models (LLMs), has inspired the development of Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs). However, their application to financial candlestick (K-line) data remains…

Covariates provide valuable information on external factors that influence time series and are critical in many real-world time series forecasting tasks. For example, in retail, covariates may indicate promotions or peak dates such as…

Forecasting with multivariate time series, which aims to predict future values given previous and current several univariate time series data, has been studied for decades, with one example being ARIMA. Because it is difficult to measure…

This paper deals with inference and prediction for multiple correlated time series, where one has also the choice of using a candidate pool of contemporaneous predictors for each target series. Starting with a structural model for the…

The purpose of this paper is to propose a time-varying vector autoregressive model (TV-VAR) for forecasting multivariate time series. The model is casted into a state-space form that allows flexible description and analysis. The volatility…

Text and time series data offer complementary views of financial markets: news articles provide narrative context about company events, while stock prices reflect how markets react to those events. However, despite their complementary…

Recently, there has been growing interest in incorporating textual information into foundation models for time series forecasting. However, it remains unclear whether and under what conditions such multimodal integration consistently yields…

We introduce M2VN: Multi-Modal Volatility Network, a novel deep learning-based framework for financial volatility forecasting that unifies time series features with unstructured news data. M2VN leverages the representational power of deep…

Accurate forecasting of transportation dynamics is essential for urban mobility and infrastructure planning. Although recent work has achieved strong performance with deep learning models, these methods typically require dataset-specific…

Accurate forecasting of multivariate time series data remains a formidable challenge, particularly due to the growing complexity of temporal dependencies in real-world scenarios. While neural network-based models have achieved notable…

This paper presents static and dynamic versions of univariate, multivariate, and multilevel functional time-series methods to forecast implied volatility surfaces in foreign exchange markets. We find that dynamic functional principal…

Time-series forecasting models (TSFM) have evolved from classical statistical methods to sophisticated foundation models, yet understanding why and when these models succeed or fail remains challenging. Despite this known limitation, time…

This paper introduces a new approach for Multivariate Time Series forecasting that jointly infers and leverages relations among time series. Its modularity allows it to be integrated with current univariate methods. Our approach allows to…

Modern pretrained time-series foundation models can forecast without task-specific training, but they do not fully incorporate economic behavior. We show that teaching them basic economic logic improves how they predict demand using an…

Modeling multivariate time series has long been a subject that has attracted researchers from a diverse range of fields including economics, finance, and traffic. A basic assumption behind multivariate time series forecasting is that its…