相关论文: Laplace Approximations for Mixed-Effects and Gauss…

We consider Bayesian variable selection in sparse high-dimensional regression, where the number of covariates $p$ may be large relative to the samples size $n$, but at most a moderate number $q$ of covariates are active. Specifically, we…

Quantiles are useful characteristics of random variables that can provide substantial information on distributions compared with commonly used summary statistics such as means. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian quantile trend filtering…

For predictive modeling relying on Bayesian inversion, fully independent, or ``mean-field'', Gaussian distributions are often used as approximate probability density functions in variational inference since the number of variational…

Although the Laplace approximation offers a simple route to uncertainty quantification in deep neural networks, its reliance on inverting large Hessian matrices has motivated a range of computationally feasible low-dimensional or sparse…

Model selection aims to find the best model in terms of accuracy, interpretability or simplicity, preferably all at once. In this work, we focus on evaluating model performance of Gaussian process models, i.e. finding a metric that provides…

Gaussian processes are probabilistic models that are commonly used as functional priors in machine learning. Due to their probabilistic nature, they can be used to capture the prior information on the statistics of noise, smoothness of the…

Generalized additive models (GAMs) are a well-established statistical tool for modeling complex nonlinear relationships between covariates and a response assumed to have a conditional distribution in the exponential family. In this article,…

Laplace approximations are popular techniques for endowing deep networks with epistemic uncertainty estimates as they can be applied without altering the predictions of the trained network, and they scale to large models and datasets. While…

Generalized linear models (GLMs) -- such as logistic regression, Poisson regression, and robust regression -- provide interpretable models for diverse data types. Probabilistic approaches, particularly Bayesian ones, allow coherent…

The future predictive performance of a Bayesian model can be estimated using Bayesian cross-validation. In this article, we consider Gaussian latent variable models where the integration over the latent values is approximated using the…

Laplace's method, a family of asymptotic methods used to approximate integrals, is presented as a potential candidate for the tool box of techniques used for knowledge acquisition and probabilistic inference in belief networks with…

Bayesian neural networks often approximate the weight-posterior with a Gaussian distribution. However, practical posteriors are often, even locally, highly non-Gaussian, and empirical performance deteriorates. We propose a simple parametric…

Bayesian inference provides a flexible way of combining data with prior information. However, quantile regression is not equipped with a parametric likelihood, and therefore, Bayesian inference for quantile regression demands careful…

The Laplace approximation is an old, but frequently used method to approximate integrals for Bayesian calculations. In this paper we develop an extension of the Laplace approximation, by applying it iteratively to the residual, i.e., the…

While Gaussian processes are a mainstay for various engineering and scientific applications, the uncertainty estimates don't satisfy frequentist guarantees and can be miscalibrated in practice. State-of-the-art approaches for designing…

Bayesian inference typically requires the computation of an approximation to the posterior distribution. An important requirement for an approximate Bayesian inference algorithm is to output high-accuracy posterior mean and uncertainty…

A method is introduced for approximate marginal likelihood inference via adaptive Gaussian quadrature in mixed models with a single grouping factor. The core technical contribution is an algorithm for computing the exact gradient of the…

Latent Gaussian models (LGMs) are a popular class of Bayesian hierarchical models that include Gaussian processes, as well as certain spatial models and mixed-effect models. Efficient Bayesian inference of LGMs often requires marginalizing…

Bayesian posterior distributions arising in modern applications, including inverse problems in partial differential equation models in tomography and subsurface flow, are often computationally intractable due to the large computational cost…

The linearized-Laplace approximation (LLA) has been shown to be effective and efficient in constructing Bayesian neural networks. It is theoretically compelling since it can be seen as a Gaussian process posterior with the mean function…