相关论文: Online Conformal Prediction for Non-Exchangeable P…

Conformal prediction constructs a set of labels instead of a single point prediction, while providing a probabilistic coverage guarantee. Beyond the coverage guarantee, adaptiveness to example difficulty is an important property. It means…

Nonresponse in panel studies can lead to a substantial loss in data quality due to its potential to introduce bias and distort survey estimates. Recent work investigates the usage of machine learning to predict nonresponse in advance, such…

When a machine learning model is deployed, its predictions can alter its environment, as better informed agents strategize to suit their own interests. With such alterations in mind, existing approaches to uncertainty quantification break.…

Consider an edge computing setting in which a user submits queries for the solution of a linear system to an edge processor, which is subject to time-varying computing availability. The edge processor applies a probabilistic linear solver…

This paper proposes a novel online data-driven adaptive control for unknown linear time-varying systems. Initialized with an empirical feedback gain, the algorithm periodically updates this gain based on the data collected over a short time…

Conformal prediction provides a principled framework for constructing predictive sets with finite-sample validity. While much of the focus has been on univariate response variables, existing multivariate methods either impose rigid…

Existing conformal prediction algorithms estimate prediction intervals at target confidence levels to characterize the performance of a regression model on new test samples. However, considering an autonomous system consisting of multiple…

Conformal prediction is a simple and powerful tool that can quantify uncertainty without any distributional assumptions. Many existing methods only address the average coverage guarantee, which is not ideal compared to the stronger…

Data-driven surrogate models offer quick approximations to complex numerical and experimental systems but typically lack uncertainty quantification, limiting their reliability in safety-critical applications. While Bayesian methods provide…

Accurate forecasting is critical for reliable power grid operations, particularly as the share of renewable generation, such as wind and solar, continues to grow. Given the inherent uncertainty and variability in renewable generation,…

Conformal prediction (CP) provides model-agnostic uncertainty quantification with guaranteed coverage, but conventional methods often produce overly conservative uncertainty sets, especially in multi-dimensional settings. This limitation…

Motivated by the pressing request of methods able to create prediction sets in a general regression framework for a multivariate functional response and pushed by new methodological advancements in non-parametric prediction for functional…

Trustworthy decision making in networked, dynamic environments calls for innovative uncertainty quantification substrates in predictive models for graph time series. Existing conformal prediction (CP) methods have been applied separately to…

Conformal prediction is a theoretically grounded framework for constructing predictive intervals. We study conformal prediction with missing values in the covariates -- a setting that brings new challenges to uncertainty quantification. We…

Pushing is a useful robotic capability for positioning and reorienting objects. The ability to accurately predict the effect of pushes can enable efficient trajectory planning and complicated object manipulation. Physical prediction models…

We study the properties of conformal prediction for network data under various sampling mechanisms that commonly arise in practice but often result in a non-representative sample of nodes. We interpret these sampling mechanisms as selection…

Numerous studies have focused on learning and understanding the dynamics of physical systems from video data, such as spatial intelligence. Artificial intelligence requires quantitative assessments of the uncertainty of the model to ensure…

We consider the problem of uncertainty quantification for prediction in a time series: if we use past data to forecast the next time point, can we provide valid prediction intervals around our forecasts? To avoid placing distributional…

Quantifying uncertainty in automatically generated text is important for letting humans check potential hallucinations and making systems more reliable. Conformal prediction is an attractive framework to provide predictions imbued with…

We study the problem of uncertainty quantification for time series prediction, with the goal of providing easy-to-use algorithms with formal guarantees. The algorithms we present build upon ideas from conformal prediction and control…