相关论文: Nonparametric Bayesian Policy Learning

This paper develops a risk-adjusted alternative to standard optimal policy learning (OPL) for observational data by importing Roy's (1952) safety-first principle into the treatment assignment problem. We formalize a welfare functional that…

For many nonlinear Bayesian state estimation problems, the posterior recursion is not analytically tractable, leading to algorithms that are influenced by numerical approximation errors. These algorithms depend on parameters that affect the…

Rating procedure is crucial in many applied fields (e.g., educational, clinical, emergency). It implies that a rater (e.g., teacher, doctor) rates a subject (e.g., student, doctor) on a rating scale. Given raters variability, several…

The beneficial effects of treatments vary across individuals in most studies. Treatment heterogeneity motivates practitioners to search for the optimal policy based on personal characteristics. A long-standing common practice in policy…

We study the problem of a decision maker who must provide the best possible treatment recommendation based on an experiment. The desirability of the outcome distribution resulting from the policy recommendation is measured through a…

Semi-supervised learning by self-training heavily relies on pseudo-label selection (PLS). The selection often depends on the initial model fit on labeled data. Early overfitting might thus be propagated to the final model by selecting…

Uncertainty quantification is an important task in machine learning - a task in which standardneural networks (NNs) have traditionally not excelled. This can be a limitation for safety-critical applications, where uncertainty-aware methods…

Uncertainty quantification and robustness to distribution shifts are important goals in machine learning and artificial intelligence. Although Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) allow for uncertainty in the predictions to be assessed,…

Parametric Portfolio Policies (PPP) estimate optimal portfolio weights directly as functions of observable signals by maximizing expected utility, bypassing the need to model asset returns and covariances. However, PPP ignores policy risk.…

Policymakers often face the decision of how to allocate resources across many different policies using noisy estimates of policy impacts. This paper develops a framework for optimal policy choices under statistical uncertainty. I consider a…

Non-Bayesian social learning theory provides a framework that models distributed inference for a group of agents interacting over a social network. In this framework, each agent iteratively forms and communicates beliefs about an unknown…

Variable selection and classification are common objectives in the analysis of high-dimensional data. Most such methods make distributional assumptions that may not be compatible with the diverse families of distributions data can take. A…

We study the problem of non-Bayesian social learning with uncertain models, in which a network of agents seek to cooperatively identify the state of the world based on a sequence of observed signals. In contrast with the existing…

We present a Bayesian nonparametric framework for multilevel clustering which utilizes group-level context information to simultaneously discover low-dimensional structures of the group contents and partitions groups into clusters. Using…

We present a novel approach for training deep neural networks in a Bayesian way. Classical, i.e. non-Bayesian, deep learning has two major drawbacks both originating from the fact that network parameters are considered to be deterministic.…

Many policy problems involve designing individualized treatment allocation rules to maximize the equilibrium social welfare of interacting agents. Focusing on large-scale simultaneous decision games with strategic complementarities, we…

Participatory budgeting (PB) is a voting paradigm for distributing a divisible resource, usually called a budget, among a set of projects by aggregating the preferences of individuals over these projects. It is implemented quite extensively…

This paper proposes an optimal policy that targets the average welfare of the worst-off $\alpha$-fraction of the post-treatment outcome distribution. We refer to this policy as the $\alpha$-Expected Welfare Maximization ($\alpha$-EWM) rule,…

Neuroevolution is an alternative to gradient-based optimisation that has the potential to avoid local minima and allows parallelisation. The main limiting factor is that usually it does not scale well with parameter space dimensionality.…

In this paper we propose a new methodology for solving a discrete time stochastic Markovian control problem under model uncertainty. By utilizing the Dirichlet process, we model the unknown distribution of the underlying stochastic process…