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Accurate stock market prediction provides great opportunities for informed decision-making, yet existing methods struggle with financial data's non-linear, high-dimensional, and volatile characteristics. Advanced predictive models are…

统计金融 · 定量金融 2025-01-20 Yuxi Hong

We consider the problem of undirected graphical model inference. In many applications, instead of perfectly recovering the unknown graph structure, a more realistic goal is to infer some graph invariants (e.g., the maximum degree, the…

统计理论 · 数学 2017-07-31 Junwei Lu , Matey Neykov , Han Liu

Understanding stock market instability is a key question in financial management as practitioners seek to forecast breakdowns in asset co-movements which expose portfolios to rapid and devastating collapses in value. The structure of these…

计算工程、金融与科学 · 计算机科学 2022-12-12 Dragos Gorduza , Xiaowen Dong , Stefan Zohren

Dynamic graph neural networks (DyGNNs) have demonstrated powerful predictive abilities by exploiting graph structural and temporal dynamics. However, the existing DyGNNs fail to handle distribution shifts, which naturally exist in dynamic…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-03-11 Zeyang Zhang , Xin Wang , Ziwei Zhang , Haoyang Li , Wenwu Zhu

Accurate air quality forecasts are vital for public health alerts, exposure assessment, and emissions control. In practice, observational data are often missing in varying proportions and patterns due to collection and transmission issues.…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-11-05 Yuzhuang Pian , Taiyu Wang , Shiqi Zhang , Rui Xu , Yonghong Liu

Deep-learning-based data-driven forecasting methods have produced impressive results for traffic forecasting. A major limitation of these methods, however, is that they provide forecasts without estimates of uncertainty, which are critical…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-04-07 Tanwi Mallick , Prasanna Balaprakash , Jane Macfarlane

Financial time series forecasting faces a fundamental challenge: predicting optimal asset allocations requires understanding regime-dependent correlation structures that transform during crisis periods. Existing graph-based spatio-temporal…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-10-27 Zan Li , Rui Fan

This study proposes a deep learning model based on the combination of convolutional neural network (CNN) and bidirectional long short-term memory network (BiLSTM) for discriminant analysis of financial systemic risk. The model first uses…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-02-12 Yu Cheng , Zhen Xu , Yuan Chen , Yuhan Wang , Zhenghao Lin , Jinsong Liu

Accurate forecasting in financial markets requires integrating diverse data sources, from historical prices to macroeconomic indicators and financial news. However, existing models often fail to align these modalities effectively, limiting…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-11-04 Yunhua Pei , John Cartlidge , Anandadeep Mandal , Daniel Gold , Enrique Marcilio , Riccardo Mazzon

Trend change prediction in complex systems with a large number of noisy time series is a problem with many applications for real-world phenomena, with stock markets as a notoriously difficult to predict example of such systems. We approach…

计算金融 · 定量金融 2018-11-30 Ben Moews , J. Michael Herrmann , Gbenga Ibikunle

Predicting stock returns remains a central challenge in quantitative finance, transitioning from traditional statistical methods to contemporary deep learning techniques. However, many current models struggle with effectively capturing…

计算工程、金融与科学 · 计算机科学 2025-10-14 Chenlanhui Dai , Wenyan Wang , Yusi Fan , Yueying Wang , Lan Huang , Kewei Li , Fengfeng Zhou

Financial time-series forecasting has long been a challenging problem because of the inherently noisy and stochastic nature of the market. In the High-Frequency Trading (HFT), forecasting for trading purposes is even a more challenging task…

计算工程、金融与科学 · 计算机科学 2019-06-11 Dat Thanh Tran , Alexandros Iosifidis , Juho Kanniainen , Moncef Gabbouj

This paper presents a novel hybrid model that integrates long-short-term memory (LSTM) networks and Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) to significantly enhance the accuracy of stock market predictions. The LSTM component adeptly captures temporal…

统计金融 · 定量金融 2025-02-25 Meet Satishbhai Sonani , Atta Badii , Armin Moin

The increasingly wide use of deep machine learning techniques in computational mechanics has significantly accelerated simulations of problems that were considered unapproachable just a few years ago. However, in critical applications such…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-04-01 David Gonzalez , Alba Muixi , Beatriz Moya , Elias Cueto

In recent years, machine learning and deep learning have become popular methods for financial data analysis, including financial textual data, numerical data, and graphical data. This paper proposes to use sentiment analysis to extract…

统计金融 · 定量金融 2020-07-27 Yang Li , Yi Pan

Various spatiotemporal and network GARCH models have recently been proposed to capture volatility interactions, such as the transmission of market risk across financial networks. These approaches rely heavily on the specification of the…

应用统计 · 统计学 2026-03-03 Ariane N. Meli Chrisko , Jessie Li , Philipp Otto , Wolfgang Schmid

Graph prediction problems prevail in data analysis and machine learning. The inverse prediction problem, namely to infer input data from given output labels, is of emerging interest in various applications. In this work, we develop…

机器学习 · 统计学 2022-11-22 Chen Xu , Xiuyuan Cheng , Yao Xie

Given a sequence of sets, where each set contains an arbitrary number of elements, the problem of temporal sets prediction aims to predict the elements in the subsequent set. In practice, temporal sets prediction is much more complex than…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-07-09 Le Yu , Leilei Sun , Bowen Du , Chuanren Liu , Hui Xiong , Weifeng Lv

Estimation of model uncertainty can help improve the explainability of Graph Convolutional Networks and the accuracy of the models at the same time. Uncertainty can also be used in critical applications to verify the results of the model by…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-07-03 Illia Oleksiienko , Juho Kanniainen , Alexandros Iosifidis

The recent decade has seen an enormous rise in the popularity of deep learning and neural networks. These algorithms have broken many previous records and achieved remarkable results. Their outstanding performance has significantly sped up…